EckerNet.Com

As we watch the events unfold involving Israel\’s defense of it\’s people, it occurs to me that this falls right into Iran\’s hands. I realize that may seem like a rather obvious observation, so I\’d like to point out not in the way that most people would think.

Iran has been hellbent on getting a nuclear program up and spitting out nukes so they can hold the world hostage. For awhile there it looked like they might succeed, but then they overestimated the level of support Russia and China were willing to offer. With world opinion turning against them, I\’m sure the prospect of an Israeli (or US) strike on their nuclear facilities scared their prayer rugs right out from underneath them.

So what you ask? Awhile back I attempted to challenge the assertion that Israel had air strike capability against Iran\’s nuclear program. I just didn\’t think they had the necessary resources to accomplish such a strike, especially considering the considerable range. Well as my research determined, they actually do have the capability to make at least a single coordinated strike, however, a sustained campaign is unlikely.

So Iran sees the world calling their bluff, meanwhile Israel is sitting pretty with just enough capable aircraft to put a dent in the real estate market around Tehran. Well, this situation fixes that problem.

Consider that aircraft are machines, and machines take maintenance especially when they are carving circles in the sky near the speed of sound, dodging lead and dropping high explosives. Even in the best situations, you can count on an 80% availability rate on aircraft. Add in the additional wear and tear that combat inflicts (not to mention combat losses!), and your availability rate goes down. Plus some of those aircraft will be needed elsewhere, so you don\’t have the entire inventory available for a strike.

I\’d have to say the odds against Israel being capable of a coordinated strike on Iran\’s nuclear program at the moment are higher than Ted Kennedy\’s blood alcohol level. Which of course means, that first thing tomorrow morning there will be all sorts of pretty lights over Iran.

I think that serves Iran\’s purposes pretty well right now. Which makes them all the more dangerous.