What’s really interesting though is when you get into the nitty-gritty of the poll, the demographics.

First of all, the potential spoiler, is Independent candidate Tom Horner.  Now the big concern on the right was how much of the Republican vote was Horner going to steal.  He is a former Republican, RINO to many, but his views are widely out of step with most everyone on the right.  But that concern was still there.  It appears that concern was maybe unfounded as he pulls more voters from the left side of the aisle than the right, by almost a 2:1 margin actually.  In essence, he’s more a spoiler for the Democrats than the Republicans.

But what really surprised me was the women….for many that know me, that shouldn’t be a huge surprise, so let me explain more, by paraphrasing a great political mind that probably would prefer not to be named here.  Women can be a bit signpost for Republicans, as they are the proverbial “canary in the coal mine”.  If you look at the political spectrum, you got about 30% that are sold GOP or Democrat on either side of the aisle.  You’re pretty certain of the support of your party.  So you’re mostly competing for all those independents in the middle, some of which tend to lean one way or another.  Suburban women generally lean Democrat, so as a Republican if you can do well amongst them, you’ve probably captured a good share of the independents.  If you start losing women, well, your opponent is starting to march down that political battlefield towards your end zone.

With the DWI issue getting such prominence, and Dayton’s own often (and recent) problems with alcohol NOT getting much attention, I figured Emmer is probably in trouble amongst women.  Plus he’s been mostly talking about spending and the deficit which, on it’s own, isn’t typically going to resonate with them.  But this poll shows that Emmer trails by only 7 points with women, and no candidate really has a commanding lead.  That’s particularly encouraging as Emmer doesn’t have much of a hole to dig out of there.  Instead it’s a platform on which to build.

And it’s a great starting point, not let’s move forward to November!

I heard all these claims and shoke my head at them all.  I knew Obama would never go after guns themselves.  The government confiscating firearms is just too symbolic and high-profile.  Even for non-Second Amendment supporters, it would be a little too Stalinesque to overlook.  I often counseled those that would listen that the danger was not in Obama taking away guns, but the ammunition.  Without ammunition a gun is just a really well engineered chunk of metal.  It’s an awkward club, or a really cool mantelpiece for the fireplace.  It’s the Achille’s Heel of firearms, and there are a million ways to strike it.

Most obvious is placing high taxes upon either the ammunition itself or the components required to manufacture them.  Or imposing artificially high prices by limiting the available materials for ammunition.  This is actually an approach the Obama Administration has already tried….and backed down when they got caught.  But they may be up to their old tricks again….

With the fall hunting season fast approaching, the Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) under Lisa Jackson, who was responsible for banning bear hunting in New Jersey, is now considering a petition by the Center for Biological Diversity (CBD) – a leading anti-hunting organization – to ban all traditional ammunition under the Toxic Substance Control Act of 1976, a law in which Congress expressly exempted ammunition.  If the EPA approves the petition, the result will be a total ban on all ammunition containing lead-core components, including hunting and target-shooting rounds. The EPA must decide to accept or reject this petition by November 1, 2010, the day before the midterm elections.

Now certainly there exists non-lead alternatives for ammunition, but they are also extremely expensive.  They also aren’t nearly as effective.  Lead, being a softer metal tends to impart more of it’s kinetic energy upon it’s target, rather than the over-penetration problem you can have with other metals.  Lead is also a cheaper metal that keeps down the overall costs of the ammunition, which lends to people buying more of it.  This is important when a vast majority of the monies used for wildlife management and conservation efforts come from either hunting/fishing licenses and the 11 percent federal excise tax placed upon ammunition.

Eliminating one of the most common, and certainly the least expensive elements, in ammunition would necessarily greatly increase the cost of those rounds.  And when even a simple hunting trip can involve the purchase of many many rounds, this has a prohibitive effect on the hunting industry in general.  An industry that employs a lot of people and which contributes vast sums of resources to wildlife conservation efforts.  And when it becomes cost prohibitive to even buy such ammunition, firearms themselves become cost-prohibitive and you’ve essentially accomplished the same thing a firearms ban would accomplish.

Actually the problem with paying attention to politics is I play this game every day.

Well the MN GOP promptly released an ad introducing the new DFL nominee to Minnesota.  That shouldn’t be a surprise, we’ve been seeing Mark Dayton’s family spending millions on anti-Emmer ads for weeks now.  But now the MN GOP is finally answering back with an ad that scored an A- on the KSTP Truth Test….unlike the famous anti-Emmer ad by Alliance for a Better Minnesota (aka Dayton family front group) which scored an F.

Of course Dayton is denouncing this as a smear….not sure what part of quoting past news articles about him, he considers smearing.  Sounds like Dayton is already starting a pattern of running from his past.  And when it’s pretty true that past performance predicts future performance, that’s not good for Minnesota.

1. The response of every Democrat to every Republican question or comment becomes, semantically speaking, “George W. Bush.”  Up to and including “What are the visiting hours for the art gallery?”

Actually hasn’t this been the basis for every speech in the Obama Administration so far??

2. The Democrats start talking up “scandals” involving Republicans that wouldn’t even get you a verbal reprimand at your job if you did them.

I think it’s safe to say this qualifies….and allow me to go on record as stating we need more of these scandals in the future.  Lots more.

3. A Democratic legislator snaps and attempts to strangle someone.  On camera.

With Senator Franken around, it’s only a matter of time.

6. The DSCC starts funding the New York races.
7. The DCCC starts funding urban House races.

I think we’re there already

8. We see a week of “Will the Republicans try to impeach the President?” stories in the media. Or a month of them.

Well they did freak out for few weeks about Rep. Bachmann and Rep. Issa

9. A convoluted theory appears that tortuously ‘proves’ that the Democrats are actually going to gain seats, really.  It will involve three random trends whose relationship with each other is not immediately obvious.  It will have a buzzword.  Every site on the Left will talk it up for two weeks.  It will then disappear without a trace.

This probably overqualifies but….

10. “Of course we’re going to keep Congress.  GOTV will save us.”

Every time someone let’s Pelosi ramble she comes up with something like this.  It’s probably only a matter of time….one of those infinite number of monkeys drafting Shakespeare type things.

[Via Instapundit]

First of all those hoping to see the entire SB1070 tossed out, not only did that not happen today but it’s not going to happen as SB1070 includes a severability clause, which means that if an invalid portion can be separated from the rest, it shall be toss out while the rest of the bill remains in place.  So let’s set that aside right now.

The claim of the Obama Administration was that “the power to regulate immigration is vested exclusively in the federal government, and that the provisions of S.B. 1070 are therefore preempted by federal law” and they sought a preliminary injunction to block it’s enforcement.  So what standard do we need to meet for that?

A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must establish that he is likely to succeed on the merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.

So how did that work out for them??  Well for most of the bill the Judge decided that the Obama Administration was not likely to succeed on the merits of the challenge.  But there were four provisions that she did rule were likely to succeed on the merits in showing that those sections are preempted by federal law.

• Portion of Section 2 – requiring that an officer make a reasonable attempt to determine the immigration status of a person stopped, detained or arrested if there is a reasonable suspicion that the person is unlawfully present in the United States, and requiring verification of the immigration status of any person arrested prior to releasing that person
• Section 3 – creating a crime for the failure to apply for or carry alien registration papers
• Portion of Section 5 – creating a crime for an unauthorized alien to solicit, apply for, or perform work
• Section 6 – authorizing the warrantless arrest of a person where there is probable cause to believe the person has committed a public offense that makes the person removable from the United States

So why were these blocked? Well essentially it comes down to the interpretation of the specific wording of some of the sentences in these sections.  Which if you follow strictly to the letter of each sentence in isolation, suggests that law enforcement would have to verify the immigration status of every person they had even the most basic contact with, even if they knew they were a US citizen.  Obviously this would quickly overwhelm the Federal Government with requests and therefore would impede upon the Federal Government’s ability to perform it’s immigration enforcement duties.

So what’s the direct impact of this injunction?  Well let’s take a look at those provisions that were blocked.

Well the blocked portion of Section 2 pretty much has no impact, because even though it was the heart of SB 1070, it was actually MORE restrictive than federal law.  According to the SCOTUS ruling in Muehler vs Mena (2005), officers don’t even need reasonable suspicion to question a person regarding their immigration status.  So actually this preliminary injunction increases the ability of local law enforcement to enforce immigration laws.

As far as Section 3 goes, it doesn’t matter as this was already a federal crime (8 USCS 1304(a) and 1306(e)), so nothing changes by blocking this portion.

Portion of Section 5, well this is already covered by a variety of state and federal laws, including the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

And finally Section 6, this is already covered by Arizona law.  In fact the training materials for law enforcement states that this provision does not appear to change Arizona law.  Therefore repealing it basically does nothing.

So for those ranting and raving about this preliminary injunction, please understand that this has virtually no impact on the ability of Arizona law enforcement to do their job.  And this is just the start of the case, as Arizona can still argument for the merit of one or more of these provisions.  Moreover when you consider the political implications, as I will tomorrow, this is a win-win situation for border enforcement no matter how this turns out.

Of course, border enforcement activists like myself have insisted for years that there is lots of middle ground on this.  For example, if you force employers to check their new employees for legal status, illegal aliens will self-deport when there are no opportunities for employment.  Between that and the attrition of basic law enforcement, the problem pretty much takes care of itself over a few years.

Well as it turns out, that viewpoint was both correct and far too pessimistic on it’s timeline.

The two women are among scores of illegal immigrant families across Phoenix hauling the contents of their homes into the yard this weekend as they rush to sell up and get out before the state law takes effect on Thursday.

The law, the toughest imposed by any U.S. state to curb illegal immigration, seeks to drive more than 400,000 undocumented day laborers, landscapers, house cleaners, chambermaids and other workers out of Arizona, which borders Mexico.

In a sign of a gathering exodus, Mexican businesses from grocers and butcher shops to diners and beauty salons have shut their doors in recent weeks as their owners and clients leave.

On Saturday and Sunday, Reuters counted dozens of impromptu yard sales in Latino neighborhoods in central and west Phoenix

“They wanted to drive Hispanics out of Arizona and they have succeeded even before the law even comes into effect,” said Aguilar, 28, a mother of three young children who was also offering a few cherished pictures and a stereo at one of five sales on the same block.

As it turns out it hasn’t taken a single arrest or even a single status inquiry to accomplish a good portion of the job.  All it took is a government willing to stand up and enforce it’s own laws.  These illegal aliens have stayed until now because they recognize the open secret that the Federal Government is a joke.  It’s more likely to pander to what it considers future voters than actually enforce it’s own laws.

Instead a state government with far less resources but with far more testicular fortitude, just has to threaten to enforce the law and illegal aliens scatter.  Nobody is under any illusions that all those illegal aliens are returning to their homes.  There are still plenty of other states which haven’t yet supplanted the Federal Government spinal absenteeism.  But don’t think that the lesson of Arizona is lost on all those states or their citizens, especially in these times of economic hardships and budget deficits, it appears as if La Bush’s Law may have reached it’s conclusion.

Well let’s take a look at some of the more interesting races.  We’ll start with those currently held by Democrats…

North Dakota – Republican Hoeven is beating Democrat Potter almost 4 to 1 in the polls.  Potter should count it as a moral victory if he can break 20% in the election…and the way the polls are looking I’m not sure he can accomplish that.  Solid Republican takeover.

Indiana – This race stopped being interesting a long time ago and it’s gotten even less interesting as Democrats Ellsworth falls further and further behind.  At this point Republican Coats could be caught with a dead hooker and a goat on top of a pile of cocaine and he’d still win.  Solid Republican takeover.

Arkansas – The interesting part of this race is long in the past, namely the primary which would determine how Blanche Lincoln was going to be given the pink slip.  Now this race is just plain boring.  Democrat Halter never had a chance.  Even the scenario I described regarding Coats of Indiana wouldn’t put this race in question.  Solid Republican takeover.

Delaware – I promise…this is the last blowout.  Last two times I offered to put money on this election, Republican Castle over Democrats Coons….now I’ll give you 2:1 odds. Solid Republican takeover.

Nevada – The NRA’s favorite candidate is make a race out of this as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid defends his seat.  The dynamics of this race has definitely changed.  While most of Nevada already really disliked Reid, now a large plurality also really dislike Sharon Angle.  However, at the end of the day the voters have to pick one or the other and the public breakdown on the issues favors Angle more than it does Reid.  Nevada voters think the economy stink, that the stimulus didn’t do crap, they want the health care law repealed and they think Arizona’s new immigration law is a pretty good idea that they wouldn’t mind trying in their own state.  Plus Reid has made several high profile gaffes lately, including his much lampooned claim that there are no illegal workers in Nevada.  Then a deceased Mormon woman, a key constituency for Reid, slammed him in her obituary.  There is reason to be concerned about this effectively-tied race….but I think in the end Angle pulls this out.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Illinois – Uh oh, this race is quickly falling apart.  While Democrat Giannoulias’s support hasn’t increased, Republican Kirk’s has fallen, and in every possible category these two are tied.  Both candidates have flaws dragging them down.  Giannoulias is part of the corrupt Illinois political culture and Kirk has made false claims about his military record.  Illinois voters are pretty much split on the issues, although they very slightly favor Kirk.  On the other hand Obama is still popular here which favors Giannoulias.  Each candidate has the support of their parties voters and most of the independents fall Kirk’s way…but there is a large plurality of independents that are still uncommitted.  The Holy Trinity for Republicans is at risk in Illinois….this race is entirely a toss-up.

Pennsylvania – Ok this race has closed a bit since we last took a look and yes there is reason to be concerned.  Now that I’ve given the disclaimer, this is still looking favorable for the GOP.  Republican Toomey’s support has never left the mid-40s, while Democrat Sestak has gone from the mid-30s to the mid-40s….although the higher numbers were mostly the result of his primary win and have since tapered off.  The breakdown on the issues remain pretty challenging for Sestak, especially the filing of the lawsuit against Arizona.  This race is closer than is preferred but it still leans Republican takeover.

Colorado – Well this race is turning out pretty interesting, especially considering it appeared to be one of the more boring races a few months ago.  Now both Republicans and Democrats have competitive primary battles.  Lt Gov Jane Norton has been the presumptive Republican candidate for awhile, but now the Tea Party candidate Ken Buck is capitalizing on Norton’s reputation as the establishment candidate.  Meanwhile Democrats Andrew Romanoff and Michael Bennet are still in a virtual dead heat.  The way things have changed is actually pretty nice for Republicans as Ken Buck polls better against both Democrats.  Until the August 10th primary, there are still too many variables here to make too confident of a prediction, but it’s tentatively leaning Republican at this point.

California – Really?? This seat actually appears to be in play?? I’ve fought that perception for months but it’s hard to continue to ignore polling data.  Latest polls show this a statistically dead heat.  In fact, Republican Fiorina is leading in recent polls over bat-shit crazy Boxer.   Ok we got that out of the way, but let’s keep our perspective, this is still hippy-land people.  Obama is still popular here of all things, although they are split on health care and immigration.  I’ll throw you a bone here, and upgrade this to leans Democrat retention but that’s it.

Wisconsin – Ok this race is basically just starting.  Last we looked Republican Johnson was fresh into the race and there was no polling history.  I gave Democrat Feingold the nod although there were areas where Johnson could gain ground and damned if the guy hasn’t.  Realistically this race is a deadheat, but perhaps the most telling about just how desperate Feingold is becoming is that he’s running TV ads claiming to be a political outsider….despite being in the Senate since 1993….17 years folks.  Technically Johnson still have a primary to pass but he’s a pretty solid choice for that not much to worry about short of it sucking up resources.  Speaking of resources Johnson has raised $557,774 since mid-MAY…..that’s impressive for a candidate nobody heard of 3 months ago.  Independents break pretty solid for Johnson and half of Wisconsinites say the economy sucks balls.  They hate the health care bill, the love the Arizona law and they think the stimulus plan was a waste of money.  Despite the close polling, all the factors are breaking Johnson’s way….although he’s still new and a political novice.  This seat has gone from Democrat retention to toss-up and the only thing keeping me from calling this leaning Republican takeover is that there is still very little polling history to work with here.  This is a toss-up….for now.

Washington -Democrat Senator Patty Murray has been statistically tied with Republican Dino Rossi.  This state is a pretty familiar story.  Position on the issues generally favors Rossi and so does the breakdown of independents but I still have to give this one to Murray.  Washington is a blue state and Murray’s incumbency trumps Rossi’s close polling.  Although this race is ripe for change, and has been for months…that’s the problem, it hasn’t.  Even in this year I have to give this one a leaning Democrat retention.

And now the Republican held seats….

Florida – Frigging Crist….this should be an easy Republican win but now it’s interesting.  Democrat Meeks is out of the picture, but billionaire Jeff Greene is trying to muscle his way in as the Democrat candidate.  Oddly enough, he’s probably Rubio’s best strategy for a win, because if Democrats don’t have a viable candidate they are likely to fall to Crist and give him the win.  The demographics here are really very interesting.  Rubio takes most Republican but some still side with Crist.  Meanwhile Democrats are split between Crist and their candidate.  Rubio has a slim lead in the polls but everything has been very fluid and I suspect it all hinges on where the Democrats go, Crist or Greene?  Either Rubiou or Crist is going to win this but the question for Crist is who does he caucus with?  Former Republican who has been drifting left.  Let’s call this a toss-up.

Ohio – Ohio is living up to it’s name as a purple state.  Everything about this says toss-up.  Polling has NEVER left the margin of error and it’s gone back and forth.  The breakdown on the issues strong favors “Hells if I know”.  There are a couple factors favoring Republican Porter against Democrat Fisher but they get lost in the mash of evenly split everything else.  I’m not even confident enough in anything to call this a toss-up as either outcome is just as likely as the reanimated corpse of Walt Disney moving to Ohio and winning.

Kentucky – Okay feeling a little more confident here.  Republican Rand Paul has stopped the bleeding and is maintaining a very modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway.  Both the demographics and the breakdown on the issues heavily favors Paul.  And this race has calmed down to sub-circus magnitude which favors the candidate with the lead.  I was very concerned with this race earlier, now I’m fairly confident in calling this leaning Republican retention.

Missouri – This race is similar to Kentucky while being very different.  Sure Republican Blunt holds a modest lead over Democrat Carnahan.  And the breakdown of the issues and the demographics favor Blunt.  That said the passion index favors Carnahan and Blunt’s polling shows vulnerability.  Calling this a toss-up.

New Hampshire -  I had some initial concerns about this race but it seems to be working itself out.  Republican Ayotte now has a two-digit lead on Democrat Hodes and most of the factors favor her.  Ayotte is facing a bit of a scandal in the form of a mortgage fraud case that happened while she was Attorney General, and she didn’t handle questions about it very well.  That said she’s pretty solidly ahead in the polling.  Besides even her GOP primary opponents are beating Hodes at this point….so even if she dropped back one of them would likely beat Hodes.  Calling this one likely Republican retention.

North Carolina – I included this state in my last analysis because Senator Burr was showing weakness.  That hiccup appears to have passed and he’s solidly in control again.  Republican retention.

Where’s that bring us?

Well of the Republican seats they are either toss-ups or Republican retentions….so it’s unlikely Republican lose any ground.  Democrats on the other hand have 59 seats (including 2 Independents) currently so they can lose 9 and still control the Senate and I still don’t see a viable path for that to happen.  They definitely lose Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota and Indiana and they likely lose Pennsylvania and Nevada.  That’s six seats, even if Colorado falls that’s only seven….three short of what Republicans need.

Realistically, at this point I see the Senate breakdown as 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.  Still that’s not bad.  It means Democrats can’t force their agenda through just by flipping either the Maine sisters and/or Scott Brown.  They have to deal honestly with Republicans and have to engage them at the very beginning of writing the legislative language….which means no more exhausting and potentially damaging rearguard action for the Republicans, although they have performed admirably in that regard!

End result, Senate is still not in play.

[Crossposted at True North]