EckerNet.Com

Ok we have a week left to go.  Things are getting very interesting and at the same time very frustrating.  A lead of 5 or 6 points can be eliminated overnite by a sensational news report of something stupid a candidate did.  But in many cases the number of undecided voters is actually very low and these candidates are professionals.  Actually what\’s most frustrating about this stage is that a lot of polling agencies (such as PPP) with well-documented biases (again PPP) play all sorts of silly demographic games to try to engineer the results they want to push their agenda, more on that below, but the point being it makes it hard to get a coherent picture of what\’s going on on the ground without actually being there??  So who\’s up for donating a few grand so I can go on a tour of the country….especially places like Florida and Hawaii??

No? Okay well instead let\’s take a look at where we stand with the US Senate elections.  Notice I\’ve started moving more than a couple states into the safe categories….just not enough time for any fairy tale endings in some of these races.  And I\’m implementing a self-imposed \”no-tossup\” rule….it\’s time to stop getting wishy-washy and \”man up\” as the parlance of our times goes.  So let\’s get started….

First the safe states….no drama here, no reason to do more than list them.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Ohio (R), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Remember, note the three Republican pickups right off the bat.  Democrat\’s safe list is Connecticut (D), Delaware (D), Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Gillibrand), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

California (D) – Ok polls show Boxer (D) pulling away from Fiorina (R) but the pollsters showing most of that are pollsters I\’ve learned to not trust unless their findings are supported by several more reputable agencies.  So I\’m going to discount most of that.  Besides, would Democrats like Dianne Feinstein be hitting the campaign trail for Boxer if she were really running away with it?? No.  Actually the biggest factor here is entirely non-political. Fiorina has been hospitalized due to an infection as a result of post-breast-cancer surgery, although sounds like the cancer is still in remission (Get Well!).  Okay what\’s the political impact?? Sure Fiorina is losing valuable time in the most critical phase but this has been a high profile race…does anyone really need to see Fiorina to know what she\’s about anymore??? I\’m thinking this may actually be a net-benefit as it eliminates the chance of a potential last minute gaffe and also probably gains her a few sympathy points.  But I don\’t think it\’ll be enough.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Washington (D) – Recent polls show Rossi (R) closing on Murray (D) again….and that\’s critical because there is another factor at work here that doesn\’t exist in most other states.  Only in very few places to Washintonians actually go to a polling booth.  Most send in their ballots by mail, so the fact that polls show Rossi closing just as most voters will be mailing in their ballots means something.  And digging into the polls shows they may very likely be overstating Democrat support.   I\’d love to move this back to toss-up, but I can\’t.  Only my eeyorish nature is keeping me from going with Rossi here.  I am fully prepared, and hoping, to be proven wrong here, but without a Herb Brooks-style motivational speech I\’m struggling to believe in miracles.  Hope to take this prediction to \”my fucking grave\”.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Illinois (D) – Yeah, I\’m rethinking that \”no toss-ups\” rule.  This races hasn\’t been outside the margin of error in 8 months and that\’s not changing.  Voters don\’t appear to like either candidate and that makes the race volatile.  On the other hand, we\’re continuing to see a slight lead by Kirk(R) and some of the demographics are pretty encouraging for Republicans.  Recent polls show progress by Kirk, which I\’d feel better about if there was a reason I can divine for it….I can\’t.  I think I have to give Republicans this one…and it\’s a sweet seat to win.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Nevada (D) – Remember when I said I was struggling to believe in miracles?  Well I got over that and if you\’ll permit…..Dude! I think this is happening!  Ok let\’s backtrack, this race is still tight and Reid (D) is no fool…well he is, but not at winning elections.  Reid\’s  support hasn\’t changed much, it\’s Angle\’s (R) that\’s gone up and done.  Now she appears to have passed the \”Crazy\” test, mostly thanks to Reid\’s boneheaded move to debate her.  Since then the trendline has been pretty solidly pro-Angle and there aren\’t many undecideds.  Nevadans have disliked Reid for awhile and I think they\’ve finally decided it\’s time to take him behind the woodshed.  Unless a third-party candidate or the None-of-the-Above option does really well, and there is nothing to even hint at that, I think we\’ll be looking forward to Senator Angle taking Reid\’s seat. Leaning Republican takeover.

West Virginia (D) – Once again the PPP polling agency it playing games with the numbers to try to force a outcome they like.  Despite that, I think this race hasn\’t moved much and Raese (R) owns a slim lead over Manchin (D).  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) – Remember what I said last week about the impact of mistakes being amplified in these last few weeks?  Well I give you exhibit A, Colorado.  Buck (R) had a small but steady lead over Bennett (D).  Now come reports that Buck refused to prosecute a rape case and a gaffe made during a debate.  There isn\’t time to spin either one, the reset switch has been tripped and now it\’s all even again.  Congrats Buck, you messed up and now it comes down to Get Out The Vote….which probably favors Buck.  But I feel anything but comfortable calling this for Buck.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Wisconsin (D) – Feingold\’s (D) support hasn\’t changed in almost a year, what has changed is Johnson\’s (R) support.  Around mid-summer Johnson pulled ahead and hasn\’t looked back since.  There is little reason to believe this will be anything other than a fairly comfortable win by the new Senator Johnson. Likely Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) – Last time polls had tightened significantly, but I could see absolutely no reason for it so I assumed it was just a lapse of sanity by the pollsters.  Just as I suspected, it appears pollsters like PPP we just messing around with their spreads to generate the results they wanted.  Now other agencies are confirming my suspicions, this race hasn\’t budged.  Likely Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) –It’s pretty tight between Miller (R) and Murkowski (I).  But again, Murkowski is running a write-in campaign.  Just don’t see it happening.  Likely Republican retention.

Kentucky (R) – Conway (D) was closing on Paul (R) and then he decided to release his \”Aqua Buddha\” ad about some goofy stuff Rand Paul did in college.  Now there is a time and a place to be a dumbass, and it\’s called college, and Kentuckians appear to agree, as suddenly Paul has a comfortable lead.  It\’s not so much that Conway has lost support but Paul suddenly appears to have gained a bunch….who knew there were so many worshippers of Aqua Buddha??  All kidding aside, Conway overreached with that ad and this is now Paul\’s race.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) – Blunt (R) is polling above 50% and Carnahan (D) isn\’t gaining.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – Not much has changed but not quite ready to call this safe. Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Ok this is actually a safe seat now, but the only reason I don\’t list it above is so I can share this with you.  Crist has absolutely lost it.  What else to explain why you interrupt your opponent during a major debate so you can go off on a non sequitur rant, which not only make you look thin-skinned but also gives your opponent the chance to make you look like an inconsiderate boob??  This isn\’t a rookie politician, he\’s the current Governor of Florida.  And what\’s with the \”Welcome to the NFL\” line at the end?  What is that supposed to mean?? I mean besides the obvious meaning; \”I\’m fucking insane, look at me! Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee….oops I wet myself\”.  Safe Republican retention.

Okay so what’s the final score??

My past predictions were 49, 48, 48, 47, 47, 48 and 49 and now I\’m predicting 50.  Heartbreak! That puts us one vote short of retaking the Senate, thanks to Gaffemaster Biden. And there are a couple seats in there I\’m not overly comfortable predicting for Republicans.  In fact, both Illinois and Colorado scare me quite a bit.  Save us Aqua Buddha!!! Still if there is a path to 51 for Republicans, it\’s the same as the one I described last week, and that\’s either Washington and California and in both of those, unlike last week, things are looking much better.  Something as simple as bad weather could deliver either one to Republicans and then eureka, Senate Majority Leader DeMint!  Be still my heart!

Still I am not expecting that to happen, and long term it\’s probably best if it does not.  Like I mentioned last week, it\’s not really necessary.  Republicans are all but certain to retake the House.  The Club for Growth does the groundwork and breaks all those races down.  Remember there the magic number is 39….and you get that almost before you even start looking at Toss-Ups and there are a lot of them.  Now the House controls the budget, so they can shut down health care reform and they can prevent further spending orgies by Democrats.

But if they take the majority in the Senate, one thing the Democrats learned is if you have control of both houses of Congress, people expect you to actually do stuff.  But with a President Obama, Republicans wouldn\’t be able to accomplish anything and would probably take the brunt of voter reaction in 2012 when we\’ll probably still be dealing with a stagnant economy.  Where if Democrats retain control of the Senate, they control two of the three branches and are the establishment in voter eyes.  But with a large minority in the Senate and controlling the House, everything stops…. DC becomes the city where nothing ever happens.  That\’s a good thing, plus is sets up Republicans to retake the White House and the Senate in 2012.

So those of you anxiously wondering if the Republicans can retake the Senate, the better question you should be asking is, \”Do we really want them to?\”

NOTE : I\’ll update with any major events between now and November 2nd, and perhaps I\’ll put together final predictions the night before.  We\’ll see.

Here\’s the latest in my weekly update of the Senate picture.  Like I said last time, as time gets tight, the impact of gaffes are magnified and a bad debate can make or break a campaign.  Makes it more difficult to call the close races but that\’s my problem isn\’t it?

Last time we looked at the Senate Republicans were starting to catch a lot of breaks and for the first time, even my eeyorish eyes were starting to see the real possibility for a Republican majority in the Senate.  Has the trend continued?? Well….

First the safe states….no drama here, no reason to do more than list them.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Remember, note the three Republican pickups right off the bat.  Democrat\’s safe list is Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

Delaware (D) – The non-witch hasn\’t accomplished anything.  Coons reliably polls above 50% and O\’Donnell can\’t gain traction.  I\’m still willing to put money on this race to any Tea Party folk who are still clinging to the \”She\’s got a chance\” mantra….any takers??? Please??? Safe Democrat retention.

New York (D – Gillibrand) – Remember when I said the window for DioGuardi (R) had effectively closed??? Well now it\’s been closed, locked, covered up with a steel-reinforced concrete wall. Safe Democrat retention.

Connecticut (D) – Good news….McMahon (R) has started gaining ground again.  Bad news….it\’s not going to be enough.  Blumenthal (D) remains comfortably above 50%, so even though undecideds are falling to McMahon, he doesn\’t need them anymore.  Tough break for a what could have been a real sweet pickup for Republicans.  Likely Democrat retention.

California (D) – This still remains tight and Boxer (D) is still below 50%.  Problem is Fiorina (R) hasn\’t made up any more ground, even with Boxer sticking her foot in her big mouth every chance she gets.  Ultimately it\’s starting to look like Fiorina has squeezed just about every vote she\’s going to out of California.  If that\’s the case, I hereby officially offer to sell California to Mexico in exchange for two Chipotle burritos.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Washington (D) – Pity….all that progress Rossi (R) made has disappeared and then some.  Murray (D) is back in control.  Dammit.  This race is still close but we\’re starting to run out of time here.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Illinois (D) – What I feared appears to be taking place.  Kirk (R) has lost the slight lead he had and Giannoulias (D) has taken over the lead.  Now that doesn\’t mean as much as you think, because this race has traded the lead so many times, Illinois is being fitted for a swivel.  This hasn\’t been out of the margin of error in over 7 months.  Problem here is that voters appear to be making this a referendum on the national direction and in Illinois that\’s bad for Republicans.  Toss-Up.

Nevada (D) – Ohh, the sweet sweet air of victory is starting to permeate the air around Nevada!  Ok before we get ahead of ourselves, this race is still insanely close.  However, that\’s about where the good news for Reid (D) stops.  Angle (R) is currently leading, and with the exception of a few liberal pollsters has for awhile.  The voters have also showed an impressive level of certainty in their choices, as there are very few undecideds left and they are tending to go for Angle.  And I imagine that trend will accelerate, or at least continue, especially after the disaster of a debate Angle and Reid had recently.  Reid was awful, and while Angle wasn\’t great, she didn\’t need to be.  She\’s been portrayed by Reid as the Wicked Witch of the West for most of the campaign….during the debate, not only did she make a few rhetorical points, she also looked utterly…..normal.  Never has an entire campaign\’s work so utterly imploded.  Leaning Republican takeover.

West Virginia (D) – Not much has changed here….which is nice, because I think Raese (R) still holds a slim lead over Manchin (D).  Worth keeping an eye on.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Wisconsin (D) –  Again not much has changed, and again that\’s good for Johnson (R).  Feingold (D) is still polling sub-50% and Johnson retains a comfortable lead.  I\’m not quite ready to move this further but it\’s well on it\’s way.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) –Buck (R) once held a fairly comfortable lead but that has diminished over the past week.  This is effectively a dead heat now but I give the edge to Buck over Bennett (D).  All sides are spending obscene amounts of money on this race so a lot can happen but so far I\’m happy.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) –Not much has changed here.  Likely Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) – It\’s pretty tight between Miller (R) and Murkowski (I).  But again, Murkowski is running a write-in campaign.  Just don\’t see it happening.  Likely Republican retention.

Kentucky (R) – Paul\’s (R) lead has shrunk but I think he\’s still in safe territory.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) – Not much has changed here.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – Not much has changed here.  Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Meek hasn\’t dropped out, which pretty much paints a clean path to victory for Rubio (R) and signals the end of Crist\’s (I) political career. Likely Republican retention.

Ohio (R) – Not much has changed here.  Likely Republican retention.

Okay so what’s the final score??

Heartbreak!!  After making the past predictions, 49, 48, 48, 47, 47 and 48, I was starting to think there was a real chance for Republican victory.  Now the inner-Eeyore in my has returned.  Even though I\’m now projecting 49 seats for Republicans.  Problem is the path I saw to 50 is starting to fail.  At this point Republicans need to win Illinois and then they need to flip either California or Washington.  Problem with that path is that Illinois is starting to look pretty dicey for Republicans and both California and Washington are moving in the wrong direction to be flipped.

Oh well.  Like I\’ve said before Republicans are likely to score a huge victory even if they don\’t take the Senate.  After all the House controls spending more than the Senate.  And with such a sizeable minority in the Senate, Republicans can effectively shut down the Senate with filibusters.  Plus it might be better long-term for Republicans to only control one of the three arms of government for 2012.  Perhaps Republicans can repeat their performance in 2012 if they can effectively place blame on Democrat control of Congress and the White House.

But there is still time….not much and things can change greatly.  We\’ll take another look next week.

In these last weeks before an election, things can change pretty fast and the impact is magnified.  There isn\’t time to recover from a gaffe and there isn\’t time to spin bad news how you want it to be interpreted.  A shift of just 1 or 2 points could be easily, and rightly, dismissed earlier in the year…now it\’s all it takes for a race to flip.  So we\’ll be doing a weekly look at the Senate as we countdown to the great 2010 Hopenchange Referendum.

Where do we currently stand? Well….

First the safe states….no drama here, no reason to do more than list them.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Remember, note the three Republican pickups right off the bat.  Democrat\’s safe list is Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

Delaware (D) – Only reason this isn\’t listed with the safe seats above is because of the drama around it.  But let\’s be realistic, it\’s safe.  Coons by a large margin.  I\’d put money on it.  Safe Democrat retention.

New York (D – Gillibrand) – Some minor movement here but all in the Democrat\’s favor.  There a very slim opening for Joe DioGuardi (R) to make something happen…that window has effectively closed.  Likely Democrat retention.

California (D) – Not much new here.  Boxer is still in control here….for now.  Good thing here is that this race has become a referendum on Boxer rather than a Fiorina vs Boxer contest.  That\’s good for Fiorina, because the general consensus appears to be that Boxer is an incompetent arrogant do-nothing.  But so far that\’s not translating into enough people flipping.  California may very well be going with the devil they know than the one they don\’t.  This might hinge on dynamics from the Governor\’s race.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Connecticut (D) – All that progress by McMahon (R) has hit a brick wall.  She had closed the gap and now needed to steal support from Blumenthal (D).  Then they met in debate, and apparently Connecticut voters disagree with my evaluation of her performance because support has shifted to Blumenthal.  On the plus side, McMahon has already scored a big-picture victory, as the DSCC has announced it\’s dumping $500K of ad time into this race.  The fact that the DSCC is spending even a shiny nickel to firewall this race is a victory for Republicans. Leaning Democrat retention.

Nevada (D) – I was pretty pessimistic about this before, mostly because of Nevada\’s \”None of the Above\” option on the ballot.  I feared undecideds were going to remain undecided, which helps out Reid (D).  But now undecideds appear to be very tentatively going for Angle (R).  Not much, but then again there isn\’t much room between these two.   Now Angle is ever so slightly ahead, as all the momentum since September has been Angle\’s way.  This is all horrible news for Reid, he\’s very unpopular in Nevada (even his son has abandoned him) so he needs to go into Election Day with at least a slight lead.  Otherwise undedecided voters may go with the crowd and vote Angle instead of None of the Above.  My gut feeling was wrong last time, I\’m moving this back where it should have been and if nothing changes I\’ll move it even more.  Toss-Up.

Washington (D) – Insert nervously suspenseful theme music here.  This race might have turned the corner.  They had a primary race here, which was basically a dry run for the election.  It didn\’t turn out well for Rossi (R), and, until recently, it hasn\’t moved much from that ever since.  Murray (D) had a huge cash advantage, but Rossi has been gaining slightly.  Murray sought to counter that with an ad blitz and she certainly did.  Problem is they\’ve hit Dino Rossi with everything they can think of.  It\’s evident they\’ve used up the entire toolbox, as their latest ads are repeating old material and it hasn\’t stopped Rossi\’s advance.  In fact, now Rossi is leading ever so slightly in the polls.  Too early to tell how real that lead is and there are two TV debates left.  If Rossi doesn\’t screw up there, this will come down to voter turn out…which is bad for Murray.  This gets upgraded in status.  If those TV debates go well this will change status again. Toss-Up.

Illinois (D) – This race still hasn\’t been outside the margin of error in 7 months and it hasn\’t really changed.  Undecideds are starting to break but they are doing so roughly evenly so the net gain is zero.  That works out well for Kirk who appears to be holding onto an ever so slight lead.  However, Kirk needs to gain some more ground here because if the remaining undecideds make this a referendum on the national direction and/or Obama then Giannoulias (D) is going to win.  Toss-Up.

West Virginia (D) – Gov. Manchin (D) is popular in the state but not so popular is the idea of giving Democrats a seat to defend ObamaCare and the rest of the Democrat\’s agenda.  Raese (R) had a slim lead and that lead has been increasing.  It appears as if Machin\’s severe money advantage isn\’t going to help him with the way the dynamics are working out.  Manchin is trying to convince West Virginian\’s that he\’s opposed to ObamaCare, but he has a track record stating otherwise.  Plus even if that\’s the case, he\’s already got a job, that of Governor, where he can effectively fight ObamaCare.  It\’s hard for him to make a case to move him to Washington.  I\’m shifting this one.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Wisconsin (D) – Good news for Feingold (D) is he has stopped the bleeding.  Bad news is Johnson (R) is holding a comfortable lead over him.  There are a couple big debates coming up but Feingold\’s support hasn\’t moved significantly up or down in almost a year and it\’s below 50%.  For a well-known incumbent not only is that bad news but it\’s also hard to change.  Short of a major screw-up by Johnson in those debates this is looking pretty good for Republicans.  I\’m tempted to move this even further right but let\’s get a debate or two behind us first.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) – This race has turned into a financial battleground, with both parties investing obscene amounts of money in this race.  But for the most part this race has stabilised with Buck (R) holding a modest lead.  There is a recent poll showing Bennett (D) with a slight lead.  Now that could be the leading edge of a shift in public opinion, however, the polling agency that reported that is well known to have a liberal bias, so I suspect it\’s due more to that than anything concrete.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) – Undecided voters had started breaking to slightly larger degree towards Sestak (D) but not enough to make up the support gap.  As a result, Toomey (R) holds his steady lead and the race has stabilised.  However, what\’s more telling is the financial moves lately.  The DSCC has withdrawn their ad purchases for this race and Republican groups continue to pour in money.  This is looking pretty safe now.  Likely Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) – McAdams (D) is quickly becoming a non-factor in this race.  While it\’s still tight between Miller (R) and Senator Murkowski (I).  But considering that Murkowski is a write-in candidate, unless she opens a serious lead between now and Election Day, I see this being won by Miller. Likely Republican retention.

Kentucky (R) –  Yeah, nothing new here.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) –  Democrats are pulling their ad purchases here.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – Yeah, nothing new here.  Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Some drama here as Meek (D) has become a non-factor.  So there are some rumours that Meek may drop out and clear the way for Democrats to go the most liberal candidate that has a chance Crist (I).  Problem with that theory is it hasn\’t happened yet and by now Rubio (R) has such a commanding lead it may not matter.   In fact it may have the opposite effect as the Republicans still supporting Crist may peel away from the defacto Democrat and support Rubio.  Either way, it\’s worth keeping an eye on for any shenanigans but it\’s pretty safe at this point.  Likely Republican retention.

Ohio (R) – Yeah, nothing new here.  Likely Republican retention.

Okay so what’s the final score??

Ok at this point I see at least seven seats changing control but two more have moved into the Toss-Up category and in both of them, if trends continue, they\’ll shift to leaning Republican takeover.  So theoretically we soon have nine seats changing hands, which would bring Republicans to 50 seats…with Illinois becoming the tie-breaker.  Wow.

At this point I\’m projected 48 seats for Republicans, with my past predictions being 49, 48, 48, 47 and 47.  But I am seeing the possibility for at least 50 too.

Want to get real excited? Remember how last time I was casting doubt on the whole Republicans retaking the Senate??  And as part of that I projected the most likely path for that to happen?  Well every race I mentioned that had to shift is….well shifting.  That hypothetical path is taking place!  Dude, for the first time I\’m getting a little excited here, this could be happening….that wave may very well crest at above flood stage.

Now we\’re still three weeks out.  All sorts of chances for an October surprise.  Lots of debates still to happen, which open the possibility for gaffes by either candidate.  But remember, I\’ve been denying Republicans had a chance for months.  But now even by my eeyorish viewpoint, I see a very real path to majority here for Republicans.  Not only a path, but a path the country appears to be traveling down.

Plus it\’s hard to resist the temptation that control of the Senate hinges on control of Obama\’s old Senate seat.  Dude, they just don\’t write political drama better!

Ok I figured it\’s time for another Senate update, because that Republican wave everyone keeps talking about appears to be spreading…a number of states that I had figured to be safe are now in play, or at least interesting.  As this trend seems to be spreading, I think from this point on, I\’m just looking at EVERY state that has a Senate race and that way we\’re not missing anything. Plus we\’ve had a couple primaries that yielded interesting results (Deleware!).

Now someone mentioned I haven\’t looked at the House at all.  Well you\’re right.  And that\’s because the House is well….huge.  It\’s a lot of work digging through polling data and background information for each race….the Senate takes awhile by itself, the House is more than quadruple that work.  And besides, even the Democrats have admitted the House is a lost cause and will be flipping.  So where\’s the excitement?  That\’s right….the Senate.

We\’re still stuck with the eternal question: \”Is the Senate in play?\”  I think the answer has been…..almost.  But Republicans have always been just a couple states short of being able to truly threaten leadership of the Senate.  To recap, the last time I looked at the Senate I made predictions of 49, 48, 48 and 47…in that order.  So let\’s get started….

First the safe states….states where I\’m only including them so I can say I looked at them and my brain instantly started doodling on my liver out of boredom.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Notice the three Ds in there….three solid pickups by the Republicans.  Now the Democrats also have some \”safe\” seats as well.  I use scare quotes because that list used to be as long as the Republicans, but it gets shorter every time I look at the Senate.  For now that list is Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

Delaware (D) – Ok this should have been a safe seat for Republicans.  Now it\’s all but a safe seat for the Democrats.  I\’m not ranking it as that more out of bitterness than anything else.  Fact is the Tea Party overplayed their hand here.  They had a safe Republican seat in one of the most liberal states in the country.  Sure Castle was more moderate than conservative, but on most of the key issues he would have sided with Republicans, instead of Democrat Coons who will side with Republicans on exactly zero issues.  Plus it would have been an additional seat towards that big majority everyone is aiming for.  If the Tea Party was going to throw Republicans in front of the conservative bus, I really wish they would have done it for a solid candidate rather than the incredibly flawed O\’Donnell.  Likely Democrat Retention.

New York (D – Gillibrand) – While New York\’s normal senate race is solidly in Schumer\’s hands, the special election to fill Hillary seat is suddenly worth paying attention to.  Let\’s not be mistaken, the polls are still very much in Gillibrand\’s favor.  However, it\’s also clearly that Republican Joe DioGuardi is quickly making up ground, and the Gillibrand\’s remaining support is very soft and may not actually hold up as Election Day nears.  All that said, this is still a long shot for Republicans and is far from canary-in-the-coal-mine status…if this particular canary keels over, it\’s probably because the entire cave collapsed. Likely Democrat Retention.

California (D) – Again…why do you put me through this??? My heart just can\’t take this.  The land of hippie gumdrops and magical sticky hemp rope swings is actually competitive.  And it\’s for real competitive, not just the \”competitive because it\’s fun to consider the possibilities\”.  There are few California Gurls more entertaining to watch than watching Boxer and Fiorina compete for this seat.  Fiorina has scored some solid hits and Boxer has been botching it so far, but the fact that this is California means this is still Boxer\’s race.  Digging into the demographics I see opportunities for Fiorina.  Even the San Fransisco paper refuses to endorse Boxer.  Everyone seems in agreement that Boxer is an  incompetent arrogant do-nothing.  But it appears as if California voters are tempted with going with the devil they know rather than the devil they don\’t.  But here\’s the real kicker…not only can\’t I rank this as safe Democrat, I can\’t even label it likely Democrat.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Nevada (D) – The Holy Grail of Senate seats.  Let\’s get this right out there….nobody is willing to make any sort of call on this seat and hasn\’t for quite a while, and for very good reason.  Statistically you can\’t get much more tied that these two are.  Multiple polls from multiple sources all showing the same thing, both candidates keep trading a statistically insignificant lead.  Digging into the demographics Read is very unpopular, but Angle is even more unpopular.  The support for both is starting to firm up with Angle\’s support being slightly less firm.  On the issues, Angle is a better match for Nevada voters but she\’s also got a lot of uncomfortable statements she\’s had to explain.  I think Angle\’s biggest problem here is the \”None of the above\” option Nevada voters have on their ballot.  With Reid as unpopular as he is, the fact that Nevada voters haven\’t swarmed to Angle probably means it\’s not going to happen.  Last time I moved this race into the toss-up category and that would be the smart move again.  However, although I have no empirical data to support my rating, I\’m going with my gut on this one.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Connecticut (D) – Another supposedly safe seat that is now in play.  Now Democrat Blumenthal should have been able to retain Dodd\’s seat without much trouble, instead Republican Linda McMahon has steadily closed the gap.  Blumenthal originally enjoyed a lead of 40+ points, now it\’s a statistical dead heat.  While McMahon has never actually lead in a poll so far, the gap is now within the margin of error and the momentum has been in entirely one direction.  The interesting part here is that Blumenthal\’s support has remained very steady, almost all of McMahon\’s gains have been independents falling to her.  Now that she\’s closed the gap she has to accomplish the real trick….chip away at Blumenthal\’s support, because she\’s already captured every free vote otherwise.  Blumenthal is still above 50% in most polls,  so he\’s not in real danger yet but if he doesn\’t stop the bleeding yesterday, this is another very blue state gone red.  In fact, even if this doesn\’t change parties, this is already a strategic victory for Republicans, because Democrats will have to spend limited resources to firewall Connecticut.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Washington (D) – Ok the lead has seesawed between Republican Dino Rossi and Democrat Senator Patty Murray, but mostly it\’s been Murray in the lead.  Washington already had a dry-run of this race via the primary so it\’s no surprise that there are virtually no undecided voters in this race.  That\’s the bad news, because while the race has closed, Murray has maintained a pretty stable lead lately.  With it being this close, something small could swing it, otherwise I wouldn\’t be as non-committal as I am.  Leaning Democrat retention.

West Virginia (D) – This one snuck up on us, the special election to fill Robert \”KKK\” Byrd\’s seat, previously an easy Democrat victory is now in play.  Which is a bit surprising, as West Virginia is usually a very reliably Democratic state and Gov. Manchin (D) at one point enjoyed a healthy lead, befitting that fact.  Now John Raese has not only closed the gap but surpassed Manchin.  His progress seems to stem less from their love for Manchin, but more from their dislike of Obama\’s agenda and giving Democrats another seat to implement that agenda.  Raese\’s campaign strategy seems to hinge on exactly that.  Problem is Raese has basically blown his entire budget to get to this point.  His campaign now has so little left in the bank he couldn\’t buy a used car.  Meanwhile Manchin has virtually all of his fairly sizeable warchest available to convince the voters why they should send him to Washington.  Now this race is by no means over or even close to over, there are still plenty of avenues to success for Republicans here, but at this point I see too many factors against Raese.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Illinois (D) – Basically we have two flawed candidates here fighting for one Senate seat, and the polling data shows the public knows it.  There are a lot of voters still undecided and what support each candidate has it very soft for this late in the game.  That\’s problematic for forecasting, especially for this seat.  On one hand you have the Democrat\’s corrupt Chicago political machine working for them.  On the other hand, while 2010 in general is a referendum on Obama, the election for Obama\’s former seat definitely is.  Republican Kirk maintains a very slim lead over Democrat Giannoulias, but this race hasn\’t been outside the margin of error in 7 months.  It\’s possible the race may hinge on peripheral issues such as the fact that Giannoulias told voters he quit his family\’s bank before it started imploding, but he told the IRS the opposite….oops.  But in reality I think the voters are already aware they have two D-List candidates to choose from and it\’s more likely to end on a referendum of whether the country is going the right direction….but this is Illinois, and that doesn\’t favor the Repubican Kirk.  Despite my being very pessimistic about this one, we\’ll leave it in the middle for now.  Toss-Up.

Wisconsin (D) – This race got going pretty late so we haven\’t had as much history here as we have elsewhere.  And while I wanted to call this leaning Republican for awhile, I didn\’t really have anything to hang my hat on and it was too soon to start going with gut reactions.  Well now we\’re close enough to do that but luckily I don\’t even have to do that.  The recent gains by Republican Johnson over Democrat Feingold, instead of just being a hiccup in the polls, turned out to be the leading edge of a huge swing towards the right.  Johnson lead has now swung well outside the margin of error and it gets worse from Feingold when you start digging into the demographics.  What support Feingold has is soft and independents have strongly lined up behind Johnson.  In fact digging through the demographics and the issues, it\’s hard to find any silver lining for Feingold, save his current cash-on-hand advantage.  And even that isn\’t likely to last.  Look for donors wanting to build relations with a new member of a strong Republican delegation and national Democrats now have big problems as bluer states are now at risk.  Look for Johnson\’s lead to increase in the next few weeks.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) – Although Republican Ken Buck has had a small lead ever since the primaries, this race has been close and in doubt for awhile.  Now voters appear to be coming to a consensus on the race, as Buck has opened a lead outside the margin of error over Senator Bennet (D), and he\’s also over 50%.  The real downside of this for Bennet is that there are very few undecided voters at this point.  This is not yet outside recovery for Democrats, but any path to victory is about as steep as the mountains surrounding Denver.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) – Democrats have squealed about the last couple polls that show this race tightening up and they think they see Toomey (R) fading.  At first glance that is an understandable conclusion, but it doesn\’t tell the whole picture.  What\’s actually happening is undecideds are starting to break towards their candidate.  And while Sestak (D) has benefited from that more than Toomey, Toomey doesn\’t have far to go to cross that magical 50% barrier.   Sestak has a lot of ground to make up and digging into the demographics I don\’t see much promise of that happening.  Short of somet October surprise happening, I\’m pretty satisfied with this race.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) – Ok the only reason Alaska isn\’t listed above amongst the solid states above is because it\’s still unclear which Republican will win.  Alaska is a reliably conservative state.  So much so that even with a conservative (Joe Miller) and a pseudo-conservative (Sen. Lisa Murkowski) splitting the Republican vote, the Democrat (Scott McAdams) doesn\’t have a chance.  The polls show Murkowski closing in no Joe Miller but at the end of the day she\’s running a write-in campaign.  Sure some people say they\’ll write in Murkowski, but that actually takes work and I really can\’t see enough doing it that she wins.  I think the actual Republican wins this one.  Likely Republican retention.

Kentucky (R) – Democrats are still trying to label Rand Paul (R) as an extremist, and in truth he is quite a bit to the right of what Kentucky voters really are.  However, in this political climate that\’s overshadowed by the fact that his opponent Conway (D) supports the health care bill and Cap&Trade.  Paul has wisely kept the more unusual parts of his ideology in check so he\’s in good shape here.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) – The only thing that has changed here is the current breakdown of support has solidified.  Blunt (R) has maintained a solid lead over Carnahan (D).  Blunt has gotten over his tendency to commit unforced errors, so it\’s hard to imagine a scenario where this devolves into anything other than where it currently sits.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – The only reason this was every close is because Hodes (D) is essentially running on the same platform as Ayotte (R), that of fiscal conservatism.  But with his party absolutely hemorrhaging money out of the Treasury in pursuit of a far left agenda, the voters aren\’t exactly receptive to Hodes claims.  It\’s still technically not lost but this is a pretty solid race at this point.  Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Last time, I said it appeared that the trend I was hoping to see was beginning.  Namely that Republicans and Democrats both flirted with the idea of voting for Crist (I) but as the election nears, they are returning home.  Last time we looked at this race, it was a little too early to know if this was just a fluke or the leading edge of that trend.  Now it appears pretty obvious my observations were correct.  Crist is now way behind, while both Rubio (R) and Meek (D) have gained.  But Meek is still still way behind Rubio.  Florida has been a little weird this year so it\’s possibly for something to happen, but I can\’t imagine what it would have to be at this point.  Likely Republican retention.

Ohio (R) -Portman\’s (R) lead over Fisher (D) here, has absolutely exploded.  Fisher\’s strategy to tie Portman to Bush has absolutely flopped and at this point Portman has such a huge money advantage that any new strategy is damn near pointless.  Fisher is going to need the King of all October surprises here.  Likely Republican retention.

Okay so what\’s the final score??

Well we have no Republican seats changing control..in fact none are even close.  Which is sort of amazing when you consider what the big picture looked like just a few month ago.  Sure we had lots of Democrat seats in danger and probably switching, but we also had a few Republican seats that looked less than safe, some even in real danger.  Now it\’s pure curiosity that makes me even look at the data anymore to try to imagine scenarios where the seat might be danger.

On the other side, we have an increasing number of Democrat seats in danger.  In fact, every time I\’ve looked at the data, we find another Democrat seat that\’s barreling out of control downward.  Although at this point, I only see six Democrat seats changing hands, thanks to the Tea Party\’s overzealous move in Delaware.  Although on that note I do have to point out to those Castle supporters who are criticizing the Tea Party by claiming that the Tea Party just ruined any chance for Republicans to control the Senate.  Well look at the data.  The Senate still isn\’t in serious danger of flipping, even if Delaware was still in the Republican column.  As it stands right now Republicans will control 47 seats.  Even using Democrat math I can\’t add one (Delaware) and get to 51.  Sure there are a lot of seats that are only leaning Democrat victory, but in most of those the Democrats position has actually improved in the last few months, rather than gotten worse.

Long story short (too late!), I\’m struggling to divine a scenario that results in Republicans taking control of the Senate.  Here\’s the most \”likely\” path….which still comes up short.  The toss-up state of Illinois goes red.  Then Angle pulls out a miracle and defeats Reid.  And then Raese overcomes his severe financial disadvantage in West Virginia.  Now that only brings Republicans to 50….which is still short since Biden casts the deciding vote.  After that it\’s pretty difficult to see a 51st seat.  California?? Delaware?  The most likely one is probably Washington but even with my obvious Republican bias I still struggle to see that happening.

Sorry Senate is out of reach, but with a caucus of 47, Republicans would basically bring Congress to standstill.  Which is really the important part.  Even if Republicans got control, what are you expecting to see happen?? Republicans passing their agenda?? Seriously people, Presidential veto…it exists.  Besides, Republicans are all but certain to control the House, which is the body that control spending anyway.