Good Luck On That Cease Fire
January 19th, 2009 by 
Kevin
Israel and Hamas declare a cease-fire…
Israeli troops, some smiling and dancing, began to withdraw from Gaza Sunday after their government and Hamas militants declared an end to a three-week war. But neither side achieved long-term goals, and the burden of consolidating the fragile calm fell to world leaders.
Bottom line…it won\’t last. Hamas will be launching rockets again within 48 hours.
This is a cease-fire Israel should not have agreed to. They already had a cease-fire with Hamas, who launched rockets at Israel on a daily basis. How is this any different?
Israel was making progress. Killing militants, killing Hamas leaders and not taking significant losses in the process. Hamas promised to drive Israel out and turn Gaza into a cemetary for Israeli forces…neither happened. Israel had overwhelming support for the war at home, Arab nations were lukewarm in their opposition to the conflict, and the rest of the world reluctantly acknowledged there were good reasons for it, if not outright supported it. Conditions are not going to get better than that.
Declaring a ceasefire and negotiating with people that don\’t at least agree to your right to exist is pointless and unfortunately Israeli\’s will pay the price. This ceasefire will be very temporary.
However, there can be a silver lining for this. Iran was pushing for this conflict because it needed a distraction from it\’s nuclear weapons program. And it needed Israel occupied so it could not strike it\’s nuclear weapons facilities. That distraction no longer exists.
Hamas leaders in the Gaza strip are going to be reluctant to start another conflict with Israel, after seeing many of their fellow leaders fall victim to a mild cause of violet death. Hamas leaders in Iran are going to be pushing to restart the conflict, using the existance of Jews as an excuse. How long this ceasefire lasts will depend on how much each group holds sway with the bottom rank of militants.
Like I said above, I\’d wager on less than 48 hours and hope I\’m wrong.
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Posted in Israel, Middle East Mayhem, Terrorism | 
1 Comment »
January 19th, 2009 at 8:09 am
According to news reports yesterday, Hamas had given Israeli troops a week to pull out, and Israelis weren’t paying any attention. Immediately upon the calling of the ceasefire, however, Hamas sent more than a dozen rockets into
Israel. Apparently Hamas believes all ceasefires apply only to Israel.
I’m hoping this is a strategic move by Israel. They’ve pushed hard enough to slow Hamas down, and to get the “international community” (like UN Sec-Gen Moon) to concede that Hamas must stop firing rockets into Israel if Israel stops annihilating Hamas. That’s a better position than they had before.