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Since my 2010 Predictions absolutely sucked, I\’ll ignore past performance and assume you\’re clamoring for what your skilled prognosticator has predicted for this upcoming year.

Nancy Pelosi will finally obtain her goal of being the first politician to achieve a 0% approval rating

Sarah Palin will NOT run for President

Pawlenty will.

Huckabee won\’t

Mitt Romney will.

A large number of small banks previously kept afloat by TARP will fail.

We\’ll all find out what happens when a state declares bankruptcy thanks to California.

That\’ll be after rumors of cuts to state services causes riots and other social unrest.

The individual mandate will be ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court

ObamaCare will be defunded, but not repealed.

Gitmo will not close, despite an executive order requiring it to close by January 22nd.

Obama\’s approval rating will fall into the teens

Leadership will change in North Korea, but it will not be a clean transition

European countries will begin to abandon the Euro, Germany will be first

At the national level, Republicans will make only token symbolic cuts to our budget, very few substantive structural cuts will be made

Conservatives support for the Republican party will plummet as a result.

China\’s economy will begin to cool, setting off worries around the global about both political and economic stability.

Michael Steele will NOT be re-elected as RNC Chair

The economy will continue to sputter

The Vikings will suck again…

The Wild will too….

Twins won\’t…

The metrodome will be repaired….

…just in time for a plan to be put in place to replace it WITHOUT state funding

There will be a short state government shutdown

Republicans will force Gov Dayton to accept a smaller budget that includes significant cuts to both Education and Health & Human Services, but does NOT include tax increases.

Liberals will declare this the end of the world.

The public won\’t notice the difference.

Dayton will fall off the wagon….again.

Election night I was at the MN GOP HQ until 4 AM following the latest results pouring in, absorbing ever rumor and theory, and enjoying the heck out of myself so much that it was a shock when I looked at a clock. I\’ve always found Election Night fun. This year I had obvious reasons for that, with running a campaign and being much more plugged in in general. But also just the novelty of it, that huge numbers of seats can change possession and nobody has to so much as get punched in the head….or at least not out of malice. I know a certain Legislative Assistant whose exuberant celebration darn near caused bodily injury to innocent bystanders. 🙂

But I\’ve also said that politics is like a soap opera on a massive scale. There is the surface drama even the casual observer sees. Then there are the undercurrents and connecting strategy that political wonks see. And then there are the personality conflicts and caucuses within caucuses within caucuses that political insiders get to see. That last part it\’s a good thing that voters never see or else nobody would even vote again, for fear of encouraging politicians.

End result is you have a fascinating tapestry of events, intention actions, strokes of luck (good or bad) and sheer chance. Which always leaves me with a million threads of thought floating around in my head.

My US Senate Predictions
Yeah, I was a little off, although the final total will be damn close. Two of my leaners failed to…well lean. Nevada and Colorado. Colorado was darn close and Nevada was….well less close. Whether that was due to casino owners threatening their workers to get them to vote for Reid, it\’s hard to say but end result is the same. Either way, the end result is the same, Democrats hold the Senate but Republicans greatly increase their minority….which is basically what I\’ve been saying all along. And it\’s also what I\’ve said strategically we should hope for, which brings us to….

The Setup for 2012
The good part is that the bleeding will probably stop…or at least it better (more on that later). Any budgetary legislation has to originate in the House and Republicans now hold a very large majority in the House. And with a large minority in the Senate, cloture because a real obstacle for Democrats. Democrats either have to take a hard right turn to the center or else Congress comes to a standstill for 2 years. Of course that wouldn\’t necessarily be bad.

But it also means not much is likely to improve. We\’ll essentially be in the same place. Obama has made it clear he has no intention of deviating from the course that was overwhelmingly rejected by voters on Tuesday. And it\’s not hyperbole to say \”overwhelmingly\”. We just saw a reversal in electoral results that hasn\’t been in 70 years. Obama likes to claim everything he does is \”historic\”…well this truly was!

So while Republicans may stop the bleeding with their mere presence, as long as Obama plays hardball nothing much happens. Which means we\’re still in the same place in 2012. It also means Obama\’s popularity is not likely to crawl out of the basement. And with Democrats still controlling the Senate and the White House, the overall Democrat brand isn\’t likely to recover much either.

And thanks to their big electoral success in 2006, Democrats hold a large majority of the Senate seats up for grabs in 2012. All told there are 21 Democrats, 10 Republicans and 2 Independents up for election in the Senate. Of those 10 Republicans, only Scott Brown of Massachusetts can be said to be truly vulnerable. Meanwhile Democrats have at least half a dozen seats that are in red or purple states. Those seats alone would give Republicans a majority. Another Republican wave like we just had? You got a cloture-proof majority.

Sounds great right?? Well….

Don\’t Get Cocky GOP
This probably needs to be said again….Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

And again….Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

Actually let\’s make that a habit, because Republicans have been here before, and they\’ve screwed it up before. This election was not a vote FOR Republicans. Rather it was people voting AGAINST the Democrats, specifically their overspending and their focus on every issue other than what\’s most important to people right now….the economy.

Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

Republicans campaigned against the excesses of the Obama and Democrat agenda and the public ate it up. So by all means follow through on that. Defund ObamaCare. Stop the government take over of private industry. Roll back spending. Reduce Taxes. Recover whatever stimulus funds can be found. By all means beat back the progressive horde.

Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

But that\’s not enough. The public is also frustrated that when Democrats said they\’d help with the economy they focused on health care, Cash for Clunkers, Cap&Trade, immigration, gays in the military…..everything BUT jobs and the economy. So Republicans also need to find a way to address the economy and do it in a way that Obama and the Democrats are forced to go along with it out of fear of further voter backlash. Either that or Republicans need to do a damn good job of showing an effort because the public is tired of promises and talk.

Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

Although there are signs that the GOP understand this…and oddly enough it was Michael Steele that framed it best by pointing out Republicans are \”on probation\”. Sure they overwhelmingly put you in power, but your approval ratings are just as low as the Democrats. The public is willing to tolerate your majority for an election cycle. If you screw up a again, you\’re even further in the doghouse.

Don\’t Get Cocky GOP.

Speaking of don\’t get cocky…..

Tea Party – Practice Had Better Make Perfect
>First of all calm down, this will only hurt for a minute and it\’s for your own good, besides your treat is next.

Tea Party, you need to learn a few lessons from this election. Let\’s call them Exhibits B.itch and C.hristine O\’Donnell. You need to do some better quality control on your candidates (like I said, your praise is coming later). Deleware is a perfect example. It\’s a hard left state, running a hard right candidate is just not going to fly. Trust me, I dislike RINOs just as much as anyone, and sometimes yeah, it\’s worth drawing a line in the sand and beyond this you will not cross.

But dammit, if you\’re going to pick a hill to die upon, may I suggest aiming more for Mt. Everest, or even Mt. Rainer instead of Joe\’s Ant Farm. Was Castle a squish, absolutely, nobody is denying that and nobody wasn\’t annoyed by it. But on the big issues, the ones that REALLY mattered he would have voted with Republicans. In a hard-left state, that\’s all you can ask for.

And in Nevada, make sure your candidates can better articulate their views and positions. Angle was very Obama-like in that while she did good on script, put her in front of a crowd or dealing with non-screened questions and it wasn\’t always pretty. Nevada was looking for someone to replace Reid, and you gave them nothing they could hang their hat on.

Electability matters. And no not at the expense of everything else, there are certain hills worth dying upon. Cap&Trade? Immigration? Taxes?? Spending?? Abortion?? Sure for some people those are hills they are willing to die for. Others not so much. But end result is you need to work on screening your candidates better.

Which isn\’t to say it was all bad…

Tea Party – Now Who\’s Laughing?
See I told you it would only hurt for a minute.

All that said, the Tea Party actually did a fairly good job overall picking candidates, a few rotten apples aside. Rand Paul in Kentucky, Marco Rubio in Florida, Mike Lee in Utah, Ron Johnson in Wisconsin and Scott Brown in Massachusetts. All solid candidates. I was a little concerned about Rand Paul, but while his views may have been more hard-right than his state, he also had the presence and maturity as a candidate to keep them largely in check.

What\’s more you\’ve proven that you\’re not the disorganized rabble of random angry racist hicks the Democrats tried to frame you as. You\’ve a genuine national movement, with a rationale agenda, and with the ability to organize, focus and accomplish a goal, all without a leadership structure of any sort. In fact, that last part is your best feature, rather than a big. It innoculates you against the Alinsky tactics of the left, \”pick the target, freeze it, personalize it, and polarize it\”. Trying to do that to a diverse group without structure and without a leader, is like trying to kill a swarm of gnats with a rifle.

Now your next goal is to prove you can continue to pursue your agenda without being co-opted by the Republican Party. The Republicans are just as prone to excess and Spineless Syndrome as the Democrats so don\’t get caught up in the system. You\’ve accomplished a real political force here. Don\’t waste it.

Speaking of the system…

Redistricting
It\’s about to change….drastically. Not only did Republicans make huge progress in the US House and Senate, they also captured 680 seats in state legislatures. Which is darn near un-precedented. That\’s great right!? But why is it important? Well, as you know the 2010 Census is completed which means 2012 brings….redistricting. All those political districts have to be redrawn to account for population changes. And depending on how those lines are drawn determines how easy it is for a Republican or Democrat to win and hold a particular seat. So if you control the process of drawing those lines, you can make it very difficult for the opposition for the next ten years. It\’s called gerrymandering.

So again why is that important?? Well it\’s the state legislatures that do that. And Republicans took over 18 state legislative chambers on Tuesday and gained six governor seats. In fact, for 17 states Republicans control both chambers of the state legislature and the Governor\’s seat, which puts them in complete control of drawing the lines.

And those 17 states represent 196 of the House\’s 435 districts. In comparison, Democrats control all three legs of the government in up to 10 states, which control at most 88 seats, but possibly as few as 26.

Oh it gets better. Six states have nonpartisan redistricting commissions. If you take those 88 seats out, for 196 out of 347 districts, Republican\’s completely control the drawing of the lines.

In the other states, like Minnesota, a mixed legislature means the judicial system is likely to draw the lines.

Speaking of Minnesota…

DFL\’s Bed Not So Comfy
For the first time since the Minnesota Senate allowed partisan designations, Republicans control the Senate. And the Minnesota House is now also Republican controlled. In both cases, with seats to spare.

The Governor\’s seats is still up for grabs. If it\’s Emmer than Republicans control all three legs and they get run of the board. But even if it\’s Dayton, with Republicans in charge of both Houses, his agenda is a dead stick. But it gets worse for DFL and they have only themselves to blame.

Last session we had the opposite situation, a DFL legislature with a GOP Governor. When the DFL couldn\’t come up with a budget they simply passed an unreasonable one and adjourned and made it Pawlenty\’s problem. Pawlenty in turn used unallotment. Well the DFL collectively wet themselves and through the courts made sure that couldn\’t be done ever again. So now facing a $6 billion deficit, what are Dayton\’s options?? Either he agrees to the Republican\’s version of a budget, thereby pissing off his base and making the right happy. Or he shuts down the government and calls the legislature into a special session, thereby pissing off his base and mildly annoying the right. The Legislature in turn, if they really want to play hardball can just keep passing the same budget until Dayton relents. After all, what is Dayton\’s recourse??? Bitch to the media that the legislature won\’t raise taxes??? Yeah, that\’ll get sympathy from the public.

And so we begin this political drama all over again. I got my chair, I got my popcorn, start the show!

Ok we have a week left to go.  Things are getting very interesting and at the same time very frustrating.  A lead of 5 or 6 points can be eliminated overnite by a sensational news report of something stupid a candidate did.  But in many cases the number of undecided voters is actually very low and these candidates are professionals.  Actually what\’s most frustrating about this stage is that a lot of polling agencies (such as PPP) with well-documented biases (again PPP) play all sorts of silly demographic games to try to engineer the results they want to push their agenda, more on that below, but the point being it makes it hard to get a coherent picture of what\’s going on on the ground without actually being there??  So who\’s up for donating a few grand so I can go on a tour of the country….especially places like Florida and Hawaii??

No? Okay well instead let\’s take a look at where we stand with the US Senate elections.  Notice I\’ve started moving more than a couple states into the safe categories….just not enough time for any fairy tale endings in some of these races.  And I\’m implementing a self-imposed \”no-tossup\” rule….it\’s time to stop getting wishy-washy and \”man up\” as the parlance of our times goes.  So let\’s get started….

First the safe states….no drama here, no reason to do more than list them.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Ohio (R), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Remember, note the three Republican pickups right off the bat.  Democrat\’s safe list is Connecticut (D), Delaware (D), Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Gillibrand), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

California (D) – Ok polls show Boxer (D) pulling away from Fiorina (R) but the pollsters showing most of that are pollsters I\’ve learned to not trust unless their findings are supported by several more reputable agencies.  So I\’m going to discount most of that.  Besides, would Democrats like Dianne Feinstein be hitting the campaign trail for Boxer if she were really running away with it?? No.  Actually the biggest factor here is entirely non-political. Fiorina has been hospitalized due to an infection as a result of post-breast-cancer surgery, although sounds like the cancer is still in remission (Get Well!).  Okay what\’s the political impact?? Sure Fiorina is losing valuable time in the most critical phase but this has been a high profile race…does anyone really need to see Fiorina to know what she\’s about anymore??? I\’m thinking this may actually be a net-benefit as it eliminates the chance of a potential last minute gaffe and also probably gains her a few sympathy points.  But I don\’t think it\’ll be enough.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Washington (D) – Recent polls show Rossi (R) closing on Murray (D) again….and that\’s critical because there is another factor at work here that doesn\’t exist in most other states.  Only in very few places to Washintonians actually go to a polling booth.  Most send in their ballots by mail, so the fact that polls show Rossi closing just as most voters will be mailing in their ballots means something.  And digging into the polls shows they may very likely be overstating Democrat support.   I\’d love to move this back to toss-up, but I can\’t.  Only my eeyorish nature is keeping me from going with Rossi here.  I am fully prepared, and hoping, to be proven wrong here, but without a Herb Brooks-style motivational speech I\’m struggling to believe in miracles.  Hope to take this prediction to \”my fucking grave\”.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Illinois (D) – Yeah, I\’m rethinking that \”no toss-ups\” rule.  This races hasn\’t been outside the margin of error in 8 months and that\’s not changing.  Voters don\’t appear to like either candidate and that makes the race volatile.  On the other hand, we\’re continuing to see a slight lead by Kirk(R) and some of the demographics are pretty encouraging for Republicans.  Recent polls show progress by Kirk, which I\’d feel better about if there was a reason I can divine for it….I can\’t.  I think I have to give Republicans this one…and it\’s a sweet seat to win.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Nevada (D) – Remember when I said I was struggling to believe in miracles?  Well I got over that and if you\’ll permit…..Dude! I think this is happening!  Ok let\’s backtrack, this race is still tight and Reid (D) is no fool…well he is, but not at winning elections.  Reid\’s  support hasn\’t changed much, it\’s Angle\’s (R) that\’s gone up and done.  Now she appears to have passed the \”Crazy\” test, mostly thanks to Reid\’s boneheaded move to debate her.  Since then the trendline has been pretty solidly pro-Angle and there aren\’t many undecideds.  Nevadans have disliked Reid for awhile and I think they\’ve finally decided it\’s time to take him behind the woodshed.  Unless a third-party candidate or the None-of-the-Above option does really well, and there is nothing to even hint at that, I think we\’ll be looking forward to Senator Angle taking Reid\’s seat. Leaning Republican takeover.

West Virginia (D) – Once again the PPP polling agency it playing games with the numbers to try to force a outcome they like.  Despite that, I think this race hasn\’t moved much and Raese (R) owns a slim lead over Manchin (D).  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) – Remember what I said last week about the impact of mistakes being amplified in these last few weeks?  Well I give you exhibit A, Colorado.  Buck (R) had a small but steady lead over Bennett (D).  Now come reports that Buck refused to prosecute a rape case and a gaffe made during a debate.  There isn\’t time to spin either one, the reset switch has been tripped and now it\’s all even again.  Congrats Buck, you messed up and now it comes down to Get Out The Vote….which probably favors Buck.  But I feel anything but comfortable calling this for Buck.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Wisconsin (D) – Feingold\’s (D) support hasn\’t changed in almost a year, what has changed is Johnson\’s (R) support.  Around mid-summer Johnson pulled ahead and hasn\’t looked back since.  There is little reason to believe this will be anything other than a fairly comfortable win by the new Senator Johnson. Likely Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) – Last time polls had tightened significantly, but I could see absolutely no reason for it so I assumed it was just a lapse of sanity by the pollsters.  Just as I suspected, it appears pollsters like PPP we just messing around with their spreads to generate the results they wanted.  Now other agencies are confirming my suspicions, this race hasn\’t budged.  Likely Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) –It’s pretty tight between Miller (R) and Murkowski (I).  But again, Murkowski is running a write-in campaign.  Just don’t see it happening.  Likely Republican retention.

Kentucky (R) – Conway (D) was closing on Paul (R) and then he decided to release his \”Aqua Buddha\” ad about some goofy stuff Rand Paul did in college.  Now there is a time and a place to be a dumbass, and it\’s called college, and Kentuckians appear to agree, as suddenly Paul has a comfortable lead.  It\’s not so much that Conway has lost support but Paul suddenly appears to have gained a bunch….who knew there were so many worshippers of Aqua Buddha??  All kidding aside, Conway overreached with that ad and this is now Paul\’s race.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) – Blunt (R) is polling above 50% and Carnahan (D) isn\’t gaining.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – Not much has changed but not quite ready to call this safe. Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Ok this is actually a safe seat now, but the only reason I don\’t list it above is so I can share this with you.  Crist has absolutely lost it.  What else to explain why you interrupt your opponent during a major debate so you can go off on a non sequitur rant, which not only make you look thin-skinned but also gives your opponent the chance to make you look like an inconsiderate boob??  This isn\’t a rookie politician, he\’s the current Governor of Florida.  And what\’s with the \”Welcome to the NFL\” line at the end?  What is that supposed to mean?? I mean besides the obvious meaning; \”I\’m fucking insane, look at me! Whhheeeeeeeeeeeeeeee….oops I wet myself\”.  Safe Republican retention.

Okay so what’s the final score??

My past predictions were 49, 48, 48, 47, 47, 48 and 49 and now I\’m predicting 50.  Heartbreak! That puts us one vote short of retaking the Senate, thanks to Gaffemaster Biden. And there are a couple seats in there I\’m not overly comfortable predicting for Republicans.  In fact, both Illinois and Colorado scare me quite a bit.  Save us Aqua Buddha!!! Still if there is a path to 51 for Republicans, it\’s the same as the one I described last week, and that\’s either Washington and California and in both of those, unlike last week, things are looking much better.  Something as simple as bad weather could deliver either one to Republicans and then eureka, Senate Majority Leader DeMint!  Be still my heart!

Still I am not expecting that to happen, and long term it\’s probably best if it does not.  Like I mentioned last week, it\’s not really necessary.  Republicans are all but certain to retake the House.  The Club for Growth does the groundwork and breaks all those races down.  Remember there the magic number is 39….and you get that almost before you even start looking at Toss-Ups and there are a lot of them.  Now the House controls the budget, so they can shut down health care reform and they can prevent further spending orgies by Democrats.

But if they take the majority in the Senate, one thing the Democrats learned is if you have control of both houses of Congress, people expect you to actually do stuff.  But with a President Obama, Republicans wouldn\’t be able to accomplish anything and would probably take the brunt of voter reaction in 2012 when we\’ll probably still be dealing with a stagnant economy.  Where if Democrats retain control of the Senate, they control two of the three branches and are the establishment in voter eyes.  But with a large minority in the Senate and controlling the House, everything stops…. DC becomes the city where nothing ever happens.  That\’s a good thing, plus is sets up Republicans to retake the White House and the Senate in 2012.

So those of you anxiously wondering if the Republicans can retake the Senate, the better question you should be asking is, \”Do we really want them to?\”

NOTE : I\’ll update with any major events between now and November 2nd, and perhaps I\’ll put together final predictions the night before.  We\’ll see.

Well I did pretty good on my predictions for 2008.  I correctly predicted both the eventual presidential nominees for the Republican and Democratic parties and the eventual outcome.  I also predicted Coleman would lose to Ciresi, and I\’m confident that if Ciresi had been the DFL candidate he would have…without a recount being necessary.  So I consider it a close enough that I predicted that Coleman would lose.  Also correctly predicted the outcome of the SCOTUS Heller decision and a number of other issues.

So I like to think my crystal ball is working pretty well….so here\’s what it tells me for 2009

Despite eight years of liberals claiming otherwise, Bush will not in fact declare a dictatorship at the last minute…..yeah, I know I\’m starting them out tough.

Despite their respective scandals, neither Senator Dodd nor Senator Rangel will resign their Senatorship nor their respective committee chairmanship.

The irony that the only reason they\’re the chair of a committee is because Democrats regained the majority by campaigning on Republican\’s \”culture of corruption\” will never be mentioned by the mainstream media nor the liberal left (but I repeat myself).

Immigration will not become a major legislative issue this year

The recession will begin turning around in the fall of this year

Democrats will be unwilling to pass another bailout bill without bi-partisan support.  Republicans will not provide it.

Obama, despite his record otherwise, will govern as a moderate this year

Fairness Doctrine, not gonna happen

Assault Weapons Ban? Not gonna happen, although if any anti-gun legislation is passed it\’ll be to increase tax on ammo….effectively accomplishing the same thing

Vikings? One and out in the playoffs

Wild? Don\’t even make the playoffs.  Gaborik is traded at basement value to an east coast team.

A member of Obama\’s administration will be forced to resign due to a scandal

Global warming will lose popularity and credibility rapidly.

Some how that doesn\’t effect the fact that \”green jobs\” becomes the new hip trendy thing to worry about.

Microsoft gives up on making Vista work and just skips right to the next version.  Consumers are somehow still stupid enough to buy it, not having learned the lesson of Vista.

Oil prices remain low through the year.

China is the first to start to recover from the recession with the US following shortly thereafter

Iran declares it has nuclear weapons, although this might actually be verified

Regime change in North Korea….from internal forces

Iraq continues to progress

In Afghanistan, the central government signs a power sharing agreement with the Taliban

Mainstream media continues it\’s love affair with Obama

Newspapers continue to go bankrupt

Israel stops it\’s war against Hamas before eliminating the threat.  We got back to the same cycle all over again.  Rinse. Repeat.

Large Hadron Collidor will be started up again and will complete a full scale test.  World does not end

GM declares bankruptcy.  Again world does not end….neither does GM.

Home prices continue to fall, bottom out in the spring.  Eventually settle around a 3:1 to 5:1 median home price to median income ratio.

And that\’s 2009 for you.

UPDATE : It\’s been pointed out to me that I\’ve been negligent on my prediction for a draft.  In the run up to the elections for both 2000 and 2004, liberals tried to scare college kids into voting for the Democrat by insisting that Bush was going to instate a draft.  This claim was made with absolutely no evidence but that didn\’t stop them.

So here\’s my prediction….not a chance in hell.