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Well the news is getting better. We now have 4 Republicans and 2 Democrats of the Gang of 14 concluding that there are no extraordinary circumstances regarding the Alito nomination. That\’s still short of what would be needed to overrule a filibuster but is enough to push the big red button on \”The Option\” if necessary.

No Democrat has threatened or even suggested the use of a filibuster. And as more and more names line up against a filibuster, the less likely it is to happen.

Still no reason to worry folks. Looks like smooth sailing ahead.

The talk of a filibuster continues today. To be fair to those who are trumpeting the possibility, I can certainly understand their point of view. Normally I\’d agree with them.

After all, the Democrats are stuck in a tough spot. You almost feel bad for them (Heh! I sound almost!). Their base is pissed off and motivated by the Sheehans of the world. After all in their eyes Bush has dodged a bullet when only Scooter was indicted. There was little to no resistance to Roberts. And they see a swing vote being taken away from them. Their political world is falling apart, and they demand their team fight back.

Even with that being said, I highly doubt the Democrats are going to actually filibuster Alito. In fact, I\’m even more convinced of it today. We now have both Graham and DeWine of the Gang of 14 on record saying they would fight a filibuster. That officially gives Republicans 50 votes (plus Cheney) to launch the nuclear option if necessary to break a filibuster.

So already we\’ve gather the votes necessary. And with that it sends the message to the rest of the Gang of 14 and the Democrats that a filibuster would be useless…indeed it would be counterproductive (evenespecially from their viewpoint). At this point it becomes easier for other Republicans in the Gang of 14 to declare their opposition to a filibuster. After all, it\’s already decided. Plus the fact that many of them would suffer greatly in their next election if they went along with a Democratic filibuster.

Facing a united and rallied Republican majority with their hand on the big red button, it would be suicide for the Democrats to take the filibuster road, even if their base is pissed. With moderates from the Gang of 14 joining the fight against the filibuster, the Democrats would be stuck playing partisan obstructionism in the public eye. Their only bit stick to shake is forever shattered. They still lose the vote and their base would still be pissed at them for failing.

No, instead I predict more of the same from the left side of the aisle. They will try to delay the vote as long as possible. They\’ll be a general pain in the ass for several weeks complaining they haven\’t yet been given Alito\’s third grade book report on Charlotte\’s Web and therefore they don\’t know enough about him. Ted Kennedy will cry the sky is falling. Howard Dean will claim underwear gnomes snuck into his house and switched his regular coffee with decaffineated and therefore Bush lied about the existance Santa Claus and billions of people died as a result. But in the end, they\’ll just be delaying the inevitable and trying to make it as difficult to achieve as possible.

But it\’ll happen. Without a filibuster. And the underwear gnomes will be found not guilty of breaking and entering.

The End

Appeals Court Judge Samuel Alito was nominated to the Supreme Court today. That\’s for those of you who have a morbid fear of little kids dressed up as Britney Spears and Brad Pitt and have hidden in the closet all day. Because that\’s the only people I could fathom that would not have heard of the SCOTUS nomination for today.

And I think I\’ll go on record as saying it\’s a home run. He promised us a candidate like Thomas or Scalia and well he delivered. In fact you probably couldn\’t get closer to Scalia without cloning him. Which as we know the president is firmly against cloning….until Karl Rove tells him otherwise…or something.

Alot of people are hypothesizing about the possibility that there will be a big fight in the Senate over Alito. I\’m just not seeing it. I hope for it, but I doubt it\’s gonna happen.

Despite evidence to the contrary (and at least some of my readers well voiced opinions) the Democrats aren\’t stupid. They aren\’t going to jump into a fight they know they can\’t win. Or at least they won\’t jump in wholeheartedly.

Sure the Ted Kennedys of the world will always bitch and moan about the Apocalypse coming if RobertsAlito is confirmed. Yeah yeah yeah, the sky is falling. Whatever.

But after the shitstorm (that\’s the technically term for it) that conservatives threw over Miers you think ANY Republican has the balls (or lack of brains) to try to vote against Alito?? Conservatives raised holy hell over not getting a quality pick. Now they were given one that was above and beyond what they were hoping for. You seriously think any Republican wants to poke that hornets nest?? No.

Filibuster? Hell, you already got at least one member of the Gang of 14 on record saying a filibuster will lose. Nuclear option, no problem. McCain wouldn\’t dare go against it, if he values another run at the Presidency. DeWine has a tough election coming up. Chafee won\’t make it past the primaries if he tries to defy the party again. Graham still has bruises from the beating he got over his Gang of 14 decision, he\’s not up for a repeat.

Which puts us at 52 votes for the nuclear option. Like I said, the Democrats aren\’t stupid. They see the writing on the wall as well as we do. Why throw all your resources into a battle you\’re destined to lose?? Especially with rumors of a potential Stevens retirement. Why not just keep the powder dry to defend a REAL liberal seat?

Yeah, Alito has a track record of conservatism, but he\’s also got the intellect to defend/support it even in the face of
heavy criticism. And criticism?? He\’s used to that.

Sorry, I just don\’t see a huge fight happening. My prediction, the Democrats and liberals will bitch for a few months, then 60+ Senators will vote to confirm him.

The End.

Well I had planned on going through all the prominent candidates and doing a quick write up on each of them.

But since it seems the White House is almost intentionally leaking who their top candidates are. Sources keep indicating either Luttig or Alito. Few other names have cropped up occasionally but those two keep getting repeated and being attributed to sources in the White House. But who knows…perhaps a cloth thrown over our eyes.

And it appears the pick is to come Monday. Which makes sense. Even before Miers resigned, rumors were that if they withdrew Miers they wanted to have another pick ready to go. Not surprising they are ready to announce another pick this soon.

So since we basically already have a good idea who it\’s gonna be (or at least the cloth they are cut from) and it\’s happening tomorrow, I\’m not gonna skip the big write up. I mean seriously, if I put that much work into it I at least want to be able to milk it and hypothesize for a week with it.

So yeah, I\’m lazy, wait for the President\’s press conference.

If you want suspense, there may or may not be another dancing child at the next press conference.

Two excellent sources are reporting that either Luttig or Alito are going to be the next SCOTUS nominee. Both of which would be an excellent choice.

Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, Luttig/Alito….that\’s a base you can build around.

And most importantly, both would go a long way to healing the rift that has marked the last few weeks. In a way, conservatives could look at the pick as a sign that Bush meant well with his pick of Miers and is sincere about move the court in the direction he promised.

And I don\’t think one has to worry about lack of support from conservatives. The \”anti-Miers\” crowd wanted a pick like this in the first place. Give them one and release the ravenous hounds that they are to defend that pick. The pro-Miers crowd defended her not because of her qualifications (there were none) but because of loyalty to the President. They\’ll do so again

Either one of these is what conservatives, of all stripes, have been dreaming for. And if it leads to a knock-down drag out fight, well….conservatives have been itching for that as well. And I think Republicans have taken note of what happens if you piss off the base too much. Even McCain would have to fall in line if he places any value on a possible 2008 run for President.

Miers was a wake-up call for all Republicans politicians. No longer can conservatives be taken for granted because they have \”no place else to go\”. Conservatives have shown they do have someplace to go. And they\’ll raise holy hell in the process. If you prize your political seat, beware. Do not bite the hand that feeds you. A little nip will be tolerated occasionally, we\’re a patient and rational people. But you do it too much or bite us on an important issue, and you WILL suffer the consequences.

Contrary to claims that Bush is giving in to to extremist right-wingers, he gave into the mainstream of his party. Liberals defines anyone to the right of Ted Kennedy a right-wing extremist. So I wouldn\’t pay much attention to those claims.

In the end, it appears you have a President willing to hand down a pick that will please quite a few people. He\’ll have a conservative base united behind him, that has just recently realized how much power it wields. Republican politicians have seen a first-hand demonstration of that power and what it means to cross it.

Meanwhile Democrats, are in the minority and can see this all just as well as I can. I honestly wouldn\’t be overly surprised if they made a show of putting up a protest, but realistically kept their powder dry for a fight they have a chance of winning. Especially with rumors of potentially another SCOTUS pick in the future.

I\’ve listening to some of the pundits regarding the John Roberts being nominated Chief Justice.

One of the debates is whether Roberts should be considered to be filling O\’Connors seat or Rehnquists seat. Many feel he is now replacing Rehnquist rather than O\’Connor.

Okay I\’ll address the lessor issue here first. No, No, No. He is filling O\’Connors seat. She decided to retired, Bush nominated Roberts to fill the vacancy. Rehnquist died leaving two vacancies. His seat, and his title. Bush nominated Roberts to fill his title. His seat is undetermined.

But most importantly, it doesn\’t matter! Where is the law, rule, or even custom that the nominee has to fit the mold of the justice he/she is replacing? I was disappointed to see even Hugh Hewitt debating this.

Does it matter whether he is filling O\’Connor\’s seat or Rehnquist\’s?? There is no legacy role forced upon the seat. It\’s an empty seat, Period. When a nominee takes that seat, his oath does not include or even infer that \”I will adhere to and continue the legacy of my predecessor. And if I should fail in this, then Ted Kennedy may throw me in a lake\”.

There are two empty seats. Plus, someone has to be named Chief Justice. That\’s it. There is no entitlement. This is a pointless debate. Please stop. Discuss something important.