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To Party Or Not To Party

January 27th, 2010 by Kevin

A week ago, Scott Brown won his Senate seat in Massachusetts and the entire political landscape changed.  It was a major defeat for Obama, who personally campaigned for Coakley and it was a major setback for Democrats, whose agenda is now threatened.  Meanwhile conservatives and Republicans have celebrated and started prognosticating an insanely bright future for the GOP.  There is a big problem with that….the Democrats weren\’t the only losers last Tuesday, the Republican Party was also big loser, and in an potentially fatal way.

It\’s extremely likely that this election was a rejection of the Obama agenda.  Both candidates made health care one of the foremost issues.  Obama and other high-level Democrats campaigned for Coakley.  Even in deep blue Massachusetts the voters rejected her.  Polls continue to show that the voters are against the Democrat\’s healthcare bill, they\’re against Cap&Trade, they\’re worried about the deficit, and they want smaller government even if it means fewer services.  The conservative agenda is clearly popular right now, it\’s a gimme for the Republicans right?? Wrong.  Polls show conservatives simply don\’t trust Republican legislators, and they have a lot of reason to.

But Tea Party activists have to eventually side with Republicans don\’t they?? No, not at all, and Scott Brown\’s election proved it.  Scott Brown got his volunteers from the Tea Party movement.  He raised over a million dollars a day via the internet.  His campaign existed largely outside the Republican Party structure.  Republicans always promise lower spending and smaller government, but when they get to Washington they feed the government hog instead.  When Scott Brown promised the same, the public, especially the Tea Party activists responded with great enthusiasm.  The Scott Brown campaign didn\’t just exist outside the Republican Party structure…..it THRIVED.

The Tea Party is the most popular movement in the country, far outpacing both the Democrats and Republicans.  And now they\’ve proven they can do more than just stand around and make noise in town halls and in web forums on the internet.  They can make or break an election, even in hostile territory.  The Republican Party hasn\’t yet figured out that they need the Tea Party, but the Tea Party movement is slowly waking up to the fact that they don\’t need the Republican Party.

Instead of going through usual Republican Party process of creating an electoral platform, the Tea Party folk have instead bypassed the party.  Instead of a top-down Contract TO America, they\’ve banded together and through grassroots methods are creating a Contract FROM America.  In fact, internal divisions within the Tea Party movement, have at least partially been from mistrust of RNC affiliated groups.

The default position of the Tea Party movement appears to be that they choose to go it alone and the window is rapidly closing for that to change.  The Republican Party needs to find something to offer the Tea Party movement, or else they may very well find themselves in the minority, along with the Democrats.  Upcoming caucuses and primaries are the best, and probably last chance, for the Republican Party to accomplish that.

[Crossposted at True North]


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Posted in 2010 Elections, Political Mumbojumbo, True North | 5 Comments »

Baghdad Bob Says : Obama Is Still Totally Popular

January 13th, 2010 by Kevin

Last week, we saw the Democrats attack Rasmussen as a flawed polling model out to sabotage the Democrat\’s agenda.  Back then I talked about how Rasmussen\’s models aren\’t flawed, especially in reference to elections.  Moreover, it doesn\’t change the reality

Democrats can attack Rasmussen all they want it doesn’t change reality.  It’s amusing that a group that used to claim it was the reality-based community is so knee-jerk opposed to anyone documenting it.  Not that it much matters, as they can deny all they want.  It’s still going to come around and smack them in November.

As it turns out we don\’t have to wait even that long as even the liberal of liberal pollsters are now showing Obama at below 50% for virtually every issue.

President Obama\’s job approval rating has fallen to 46 percent, according to a new CBS News poll.

That rating is Mr. Obama\’s lowest yet in CBS News polling, and the poll marks the first time his approval rating has fallen below the 50 percent mark. Forty-one percent now say they disapprove of Mr. Obama\’s performance as president.

Just 41 percent now approve of his handling of the economy, which Americans say is the nation\’s most pressing issue. Forty-seven percent disapprove. The president\’s marks on handling health care, with reforms still under debate in Congress, are even lower – just 36 percent approve, while 54 percent disapprove. Both of these approval ratings are the lowest of Mr. Obama\’s presidency.

Again, Democrats can deny reality and blame the messenger as much as they want but it doesn\’t change the fact that the public is absolutely against this health care bill and they\’re slowly realizing there isn\’t much else that Obama brings to the table.

It\’s quite impossible for Democrats to avoid reality, as even their own prognosticators tell them they are losing the public.  It\’s time for Democrats to accept reality and drop this disaster of a bill.  If they do it\’s quite possible the public may forgive them their eccentricities come November.


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Time To Party Like It\’s 1994? Not Quite

January 7th, 2010 by Kevin

The big news out of the Democrats most hated messenger today is the news that Republicans now enjoy a 9% advantage in a generic ballot.

Republican candidates start the year by opening a nine-point lead over Democrats, the GOP\’s biggest in several years, in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 35% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

This all sounds great, except for several different factors.

First of all, if you track the past generic ballot results, the large margin is not the result of Republicans increasing their public appeal.  In fact, Republican\’s rating has risen only 2% since midsummer.  The real change has been the self-destruction of the Democrats over time.  They\’ve dropped 7 points since Obama\’s inauguration, and just 3 points in the last month.  The voters haven\’t rediscovered the Republicans, they\’ve just discovered the Democrats and they don\’t like what they see.

Secondly, this is a generic ballot for a reason, it measures the general overall feeling the public has towards a party.  When you start adding in names and personalities, things get more fuzzy.  While no doubt Democrats are having a tougher time in elections across the country they are still aren\’t in danger of losing either the House or the Senate.  If you look at the way the polls are trending, you\’ll find the numbers breakdown indicating gains for Republicans that may be substantial but even the rosiest predictions don\’t put either the Senate or House in jeopardy.  Even if all the tossup races fall to the Republicans, which a majority likely will, Republicans still wouldn\’t attain the necessary numbers.

Of particular worry to the Republicans should be the Tea Party movement.   After all, like we already saw, it\’s not that Republicans are suddenly more popular, it\’s that Democrats are more unpopular.  And right now the most popular affiliation in the entire country is the Tea Party movement, and despite outward appearances the Tea Party activists are not necessarily natural allies of the Republicans.  The Republican Party for a long time has abandoned it\’s principles and participated in the spending bonanza and corruption that is Washington DC.  If you don\’t believe me, just ask their chairman.  On paper the GOP should be the natural home for the Tea Party activists, but it\’s been a long time since the GOP practiced what it preached, and quite simply many (most?) of the Tea Party activists don\’t trust the GOP farther than they can throw it…..and elephants are heavy.

If the GOP wants to party like it\’s 1994 this November they have to find a way to embrace the Tea Party movement in a meaningful and believable way.  The Tea Party activists have been lied to by both parties now, and they aren\’t likely to forgive that easily.  Good luck GOP, you\’re going to need it.

[Crossposted at True North]


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Kill The Messenger! Kill It With Fire!!

January 6th, 2010 by Kevin

The Democrats have declared war on Rasmussen:

Democrats are turning their fire on Scott Rasmussen, the prolific independent pollster whose surveys on elections, President Obama’s popularity and a host of other issues are surfacing in the media with increasing frequency.

The pointed attacks reflect a hardening conventional wisdom among prominent liberal bloggers and many Democrats that Rasmussen Reports polls are, at best, the result of a flawed polling model and, at worst, designed to undermine Democratic politicians and the party’s national agenda.

It\’s hardly a flawed model but it isn\’t a direct poll of public opinion at large either.  It\’s a predictive model, hence more useful for governmental systems like Democracies and Republics (that would be us).  Rather than poll just adults, regardless of whether they are politically involved, Rasmussen instead polls likely (not just registered) voters.  Polls that sample registered voters tend to skew more towards Democrats, even more so when you poll adults regardless of their voting liklihood.  That may very well tell you the opinion of the masses, but it hardly predicts what the voters will say….which is what matters in a system of government like ours.

Democrats prefer polls like Gallop or even Quinnipiac because they use adults and registered voters respectively.  Both of these models are likely to report results heavily skewed towards Democrats.  Especially since both of these agencies have a tendency to sample Democrats at a vastly greater rate than Republicans.  Even though Obama won by SEVEN points (with some Republican crossover even), both of these agencies have tended to sample Democrats over Republicans by double digit points.

Only then do Democrats get the results they want…unfortunately they are useless for anything other than making Democrats feel good.

Problem with this latest attack by the Democrats is even by their own standards their argument fails.  Because while Rasmussen has been reporting bad news for the Democrats, that ill will amongst likely voters has spread so that even the other polling agencies have been reporting that registered voters and even adults in general aren\’t exactly thrilled with Democratic Leadership.  In fact, their behavior has so revolted much of the public that that still shows through in polls sampled heavily with Democrats.

Democrats can attack Rasmussen all they want it doesn\’t change reality.  It\’s amusing that a group that used to claim it was the reality-based community is so knee-jerk opposed to anyone documenting it.  Not that it much matters, as they can deny all they want.  It\’s still going to come around and smack them in November.


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New Jersey Votes To Kill ObamaCare/PelosiCare/CrapCare/etc

November 4th, 2009 by Kevin

As most of you are aware there were three big races that the nation was watching on Election day. Two of those races were for the Governorship of New Jersey and Virginia.

Virginia has long been a Republican stronghold, but went for Obama in 2008.  While it would not be overwhelmingly surprising if a Republican was able to pull off a win in Virginia, it does show that the inroads that Democrats made into Republican strongholds may be receding.  Democrat Deeds needed minorities to turn out in order to prevail over Republican McDonnell, as they are a strong Democrat voting block but also have a very low turnout rate in elections.  Post 2008 analysis show that while Obama did make marginal inroads in many demographics, his win was due in no small part to huge increases in voting participation by minorities.  Virginia may indicate that Democrats can\’t depend on those votes again in 2010 and 2012.

However, New Jersey was the real surprise here.  It has not elected a Republican governor since 1993 and has long been a Democratic stronghold.  However, incumbent Democratic Governor Jon Corzine could not hold off the strong challenge by Republican Chris Christie, despite the presence of a false-flag independent Daggett in the race.  This is not merely a rolling back of Democratic gains but losses in one of the bluest of blue states.

It is easy to overstate the importance of this election, as it is after all a local race which centers around local issues and personalities just as much as it does higher issues.  But voter attitudes towards their government in general can influence how voters approach those issues.  In this case, Christie ran on the issue of property taxes and other economic issues, where voter opinions are certainly strongly influenced by the Democratically controlled Washington DC.

It\’s also worth mentioning that Obama invested heavily in both races, stumping for both candidates a number of times, including in the final days before the election.  It is a sign that his majestic holiness is no longer enough to sway voters with flowery speeches and hollow hyperbole.

The most immediate effect of this will be in the outcome of ObamaCare/PelosiCare/etc.  Already Blue Dog Democrats were feeling the heat of public opinion regarding the absolutely horrendous bill that is before Congress.  Both Pelosi and Reid were already having problems convincing Democrats from swing districts to vote for the bill.  This election is likely to reinforce that hesitation.  If even an incumbent Democrats in a core blue state can lose, a Democrat in a swing or even a conservative district is officially on notice.  Voters are not in a forgiving mood.

While it is still a full year before 2010\’s elections, these results demonstrate better than any poll, that the honeymoon is most assuredly over and that voters are no longer under the spell of Hopenchange.  They can be swayed, even in blue districts, by conservative ideas.

However, this should not be taken as all good news for the Republican Party.  The third race that drew national attention was New York\’s 23rd Congressional District.  There the Republican candidate was forced to suspend her campaign when the public figured out she was….well, liberal.  The Republican label is not enough to get elected, the voters want to know what the issues are.  The conservative revolt against a RINO should serve notice to the GOP that they will not necessarily benefit from an anti-Democratic wave of opinion, as many consider the GOP just as much to blame after years of fiscal irresponsibility and scandalous behavior.

Both parties should see tonite\’s results as a notice.  The voters are wise to your bullshit, and they aren\’t in the mood to tolerate it anymore.


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Quote Of The Day

November 2nd, 2009 by Kevin

“He who spends time passing trivial legislation may find himself out of time to read healthcare bill\”

– Rep. Jeff Flake (AZ-6), regarding his vote against H.Res.784, a bill “honoring the 2560th anniversary of the birth of Confucius and recognizing his invaluable contributions to philosophy and social and political thought.”

Yup, we got important issues to deal with and the Democrats are passing resolutions about Confucius. Priorities have never been more clear.


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Iraqis Are Pissed Off

October 12th, 2009 by Kevin

And it\’s probably the most positive news we could hope for….

The overall level of violence in the country continues to decline, despite the occasional terrorist bombing. This has led to continued economic growth, and more Iraqis are using their freedom of movement, and action, to protest government incompetence. The inept performance of elected and appointed officials is more stark in Iraq, where economic freedom has created many spectacularly successful entrepreneurs, and a growing middle class. Thus it is obvious that Iraqis can get things done, and more Iraqis are openly upset at the poor performance of their elected officials.

Just look at this from a hierarchy of needs perspective.  For awhile, Iraqis were mostly concerned with relatively minor things….like not dying.  Then it was having luxry items like power, food, water, clothes, etc.  Then of course there was the whole need for a job, a job that preferably didn\’t dying or blowing other people up.  Now they\’ve moved on to roughly the stage most Americans are at….realizing their politicians are incompetent boobs and being pissed off about it.

Eventually they\’ll realize that\’s how all politicians are.  At best, they aren\’t worth a damn and they spend most of their time leeching on the productivity of the populace, at worst they completely screw up your higher needs.  So if you\’ve reached the stage where you have the time/energy to worry about that, you\’re doing good.  Enjoy your future.

Plan a Tea Party, they hate those.


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Wellstone \”Memorial\” Service Part 2

August 28th, 2009 by Kevin

Those of us in Minnesota remember very well the fiasco that was the Wellstone Memorial service.  Rather than pay tribute to a long time Senator and leader of their party, the local Democratic Party chose to turn his memorial service into a campaign rally, complete with insulting of Republicans and conservatives.  Minnesotans were rightly revolted by this blatant display of partisanship at an extremely inappropriate time.  It was made clear that the Democrats had their priorities severely out of wack and the voters punished them for it mere weeks later.

It was a hard learning experience for Democrats and one that no doubt was taken into account nationwide, or at least one would think so.  So yesterday when I heard the Senator Ted Kennedy had died, I posted it on Facebook since it had literally just been announced.  One of my friends left a comment:

Can\’t wait for another \”Wellstone Memorial\” service!!

At the time I completely wrote it off as a rather cynical thought and paid it no further attention.  Turns out this cynic was probably foretelling the future instead.

“Let’s win one for Teddy” became the new health care reform rallying cry Wednesday, as Democrats hoped an emotional outpouring over Sen. Ted Kennedy’s death would give reform efforts a badly needed boost.

“I’m sure this is going to come down to cloture votes,” said a health care source. “That is one place where his ghost, so to speak, in the chamber could have enormous impact.”

House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said Wednesday, “Ted Kennedy’s dream of quality health care for all Americans will be made real this year.”

Democratic Rep. Lynn Woolsey of California echoed Pelosi. “He did not spend his whole career trying to pass a bill that would tweak health care. Sen. Kennedy wanted universal health care, and certainly progressives want universal health care. We need to have a good robust public plan,” she said.

You got to be kidding me.  His body isn\’t even cold, much less in the ground and you want to use him for political purposes?  Certain things are bigger than something as petty as politics, life&death certainly rank high on that list.  Get your priorities straight Democrats.  You should be ashamed of yourself.


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Obama Could Learn Something From This Guy

July 30th, 2009 by Kevin

The best Constitutional smack-down I\’ve ever seen bar NONE.  This soldier has a greater and better grounded understanding of the Constitution that most Supreme Court Judges and far more than ANY politician I\’ve ever listened to.

And he does it in less than two minutes, and that includes applause from the audience.


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\”I\’m Too Stupid To Do My Job\” Now A Legit Excuse For Not Doing It

July 28th, 2009 by Kevin

It\’s always a please when members of Congress get a little too honest.

“I love these members, they get up and say, ‘Read the bill,’” said Conyers.

“What good is reading the bill if it’s a thousand pages and you don’t have two days and two lawyers to find out what it means after you read the bill?”

So he\’s not going to read the bill because he couldn\’t understand it even if he did.  Sounds like a problem right?

Oh and I don\’t mean the problem is with him, although you could probably make a convincing case, but believe it or not I sympathize.  For both personal interest and for political research, I\’ve dived into no small number of bills both at the state and federal level and they are written in an entirely different language not known to common man.

However, that shouldn\’t be an excuse to not do your job.  I\’d say you\’re using one problem to justify another, when you should be fixing one or both problems.  Bills are long, arduous and impossible to understand.  Well there is a fix for that.  Limit the scope of bills and simply them.

Don\’t believe it can be done? The Constitution setup our entire system of government in only 4543, including the signatures.  The Magna Carta laid the basis for our entire system of law in roughly 2500 words (count varies by the version you reference).   Yet I\’m sure the federal regulations on the import of turnips is probably several tens of thousands of words in length.

And if it\’s hard to read, simplify it.  True they are written in legalese in order to make the meaning precise, but that doesn\’t mean they can\’t be made easier to understand.  If you\’re going to say \”ignorance of the law is no defense\”, certainly you have an obligation to make that law understandable to the common man yeah?  And I\’m certain to a great degree that limiting the length of such legislation would aid this venture a great deal.

It\’s a worth goal to be sure, and it would certainly save me quite a few headaches.  But simply claiming \”I\’m too stupid to do my job\” is less of an excuse and more of a reason you shouldn\’t have that job.  If your job is too complex, either get out or else simplify it down to your level.  And if you actually accomplish that, then great, because then we can start teaching constitutional law in third grade…..in between Political Correctness class and Global Climate Change class of course.


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