So Who Won?
August 14th, 2008 by
Kevin
With a ceasefire declared and an uneasy peace sort of being maintained, it appears that the conflict between Georgia and Russia, at least this chapter of it, may be over. Although admittedly with conflicting reports of further Russian military movements, it’s likely to not be the last chapter. But there are possibly other reason, which I’ll address later on.
So who won…..or at least as far as one can “win” a conflict like this?
On the surface, Russia appears to have won. After all their military moved with impunity wherever they wanted. But what did they achieve?
Russian leaders made it clear that one of their primary goals was the removal of Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili. This they failed to achieve. Not only is Saakashvili still in power, and enormously popular with his people, leaders around the world have rallied to his side
[Ukranian President] Yushchenko, 54, yesterday flew to the Georgian capital Tbilisi to show solidarity with Saakashvili along with the leaders of four ex-Communist eastern European nations that joined NATO as a bulwark against Russia.
In addition, Condi Rice has flown to Georgia to show support for the Georgians. Russia even asked the US to chose between Russia or Georgia. Rice indicated the US choses the democracy of Georgia. In their quest to remove Saakashvili from power, the Russians utterly failed.
Russians also made attempts to destroy the oil pipeline running through Georgia. They failed. It remains intact and for the most part functional.
In recent years, Russia has protested the arms building of the Georgian military. No doubt part of their objective was to smash the Georgian military and eliminate it as a functional force. Once again they failed. The Georgian military, either by chance or design, essentially fought a rearguard delaying fight. They made a few token hits, but for the most part appears to have evaded any major confrontation with Russian forces. As a result, they remain relatively intact, and perhaps even slightly improved having had the experience and learned the lessons of how a battle with Russians might go.
In addition, while Georgian is to be the subject of massive international aid, Russia stands to lose significant standing on the world stage. US leaders have hardly been shy with their criticism. G-8 is threatening to make itself G-7, with Russia being the odd man out. This may only be the start of things, as the world is clearly still adjusting to the shock and details are still sketchy from battlezone.
Probably the single success Russia has accomplished is to insert a feeling of doubt into formerly eastern bloc countries in their relations with the United States. In fact, all US allies will no doubt be re-evaluating if they can depend on the United States in a time of need. While Georgia wasn’t a NATO member, nor had it signed a security assurance agreement with the US, it was clearly an ally. Despite having a military of only 37,000 soldiers, they had contributed 2,000 to the efforts in Iraq. This puts them as one of the largest contributors to the Iraqi peacekeeping efforts. They had applied for NATO membership and was clearly a friend of the West. Yet when their time of need came, the West and the US in particular did not respond. Georgians supported the US in their time of need, but the favor was not returned.
Clearly Russia failed to achieve many of it’s objectives and this may be the reason why there are conflicting reports of what the Russian military is doing. They themselves may not be quite certain. So, militarily, this may have been an overwhelming failure. But politically this might soon be seen as a resounding success. Time will tell.
Email This Post
|
Print This Post
Posted in Military, News of the Day |
No Comments »


I guess my first thought is, what the hell? Bridges don’t collapse anymore. We’ve been building bridges for thousands of years, we got this thing down. How does a bridge just collapse without earthquakes or tornadoes or whatever?? Answer : They don’t.