Now it\’s true that regardless of who won the election we were going to have a pro-amnesty President. So this was an issue that was going to resurface no matter what. So this storm was coming no matter what. Time for some forecasting.
On the surface things look pretty bleak for the pro-enforcement side. You have an President who openly supports amnesty and his party controls both houses of Congress. Even the other parties presidential candidate, who is still in Congress, supports amnesty. McCain could be a leader of a bi-partisan effort. The new Secretary of the Department of Homeland Security, Arizona Gov. Napolitano, is a clear open borders supporter. E-Verify expires again in March, 2009. The border fence, despite having hundreds of miles of Israeli-style fencing being mandated by Congress, is uncompleted, consisting of little more than a few hundred miles of cattle fencing.
Let all that sink in for a minute…. Sounds pretty bad right?
Well there are also some reasons to think positive here.
Republicans are in the clear minority here, but they also aren\’t going to feel pressured to support their own president. The next four years, the first impulse of many Republicans is going to oppose anything Obama tries to do. And Karl Rove isn\’t up there trying to convince Republicans that if we just make citizens of the entire nation of Mexico, they\’ll all vote Republican. Conservatives were already pissed off the last time around and Republicans have done nothing to ease their anger the past few years. Holding together a Republican caucus should be much easier this go around.
What\’s that?? McCain?? Look conservatives and Republicans were never that fond of McCain. They supported him because they had to. He\’s run for President twice now, he\’s lost. He\’s a solid RINO, the Republican conservatives hate and Democrats love. His political capital is about used up.
Democrats now have a clear majority, but with a majority comes balkanization. The us vs them mentality starts getting lost and individual factions begin to reappear. And let\’s face it Pelosi and Reid aren\’t exactly stellar leaders. And many of the junior Democrats have been voted in by right-leaning districts. Immigration is a hot-button issue that doesn\’t tend to be forgotten. Vulnerable Democrats aren\’t going to want to be a sacrificial lamb and with a clear majority there is going to be less pressure to take one for the team.
The economy oddly enough will also help in this aspect. The bad economy has lessened the flow across the border, or even reversed it. With rising unemployment there is less demand for foreign workers and more resentment amongst Americans towards any holding down jobs in the US. All in one less illegals in the US makes the problem seem less daunting, but the job market makes the problem seem more critical.
Plus the pro-enforcement lobby is one of the few conservative interest groups that hasn\’t fallen behind the Democrats in technology and sheer collaborative advocacy. They\’ve proven they ability to raise holy hell if need be more than once. The ability to overwhelm and shutdown the Congressional switchboard several days in a row is a feat not to be ignored.
The immigration issue is coming back this time around. And there are lots of reasons to be worried. But there are also lots to be optimistic about. Either way this next session will not be boring.
[Crossposted at True North]