It\’s Election Day
November 4th, 2008 by
Kevin
So you know….
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So you know….
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Yeah, I hate it but it\’s what everyone expects so I\’ll give it a shot. I stand by my prediction last December that Obama wins so if that\’s all you were wondering, then you can wander elsewhere now. If you want to see how I break down the states, then continue.
Basically I took a look at the electoral map at RCP. The states that were either solid red or blue, I agreed with but anything that was listed as leaning or toss-up I gave a quick prediction for.
Here we go….
Arizona
Seriously, Arizona is not up for grabs. Only Al Gore is inept enough to lose his own state.
Colorado
Bush won this state, but it\’s been trending blue and McCain hasn\’t led in the polls since August, and then it was by less than a point.
New Mexico
Bill Richardson is the gov, and he\’s publicly advocated for Obama. Combine that with the fact that Bush barely won this story in 2004. Since mid-October Obama has been over 50%. Win for Obama
Nevada
Usually this is a gimme for Republicans, but Nevada has had a bad year. Despite that the polls have stayed close since early October and it\’s gotten worse for McCain since. Obama flips this state.
Montana
Obama pulled out of these states for a reason. If he thought there was a chance he\’d have kept at least a token staff there. Plus polls have reliably been showing McCain in this reliably Republican state. Seriously, it\’s McCain, but a non-trivial margin here.
North Dakota
WTF?? See Montana.
South Dakota
See Montana. Rinse. Repeat. Not even close. McCain by double digits.
Minnesota
Regardless of what the GOP wants to claim, there isn\’t a chance for McCain in Minnesota. Obama win.
Arkansas
McCain is winning by a huge margin here. Not a difficult call.
Missouri
Obama has never been above 50%, McCain has. Missouri had a brief identity crisis and is in the McCain territory and moving his direction. Possibility of an upset here but I have to call it a McCain win here.
Indiana
Indiana may have a 110% voter turnout, but it\’s been polling solidly McCain except for a brief blip and it\’s back in McCain territory now. It\’s a solidly red state….and polls over rate Democrats. McCain win.
Ohio
The home of Joe the Plumber, but then again ACORN has seen a lot of activity here. I suspect the voters Joe energized trump the fake registered voters that don\’t show up. Plus many of the Democrats here don\’t seem to want to align themselves with Obama. When the ground troops do that, it\’s a sign things aren\’t going well. McCain win but it\’ll be a squeaker.
West Virginia
This is solid McCain, probably by double digits.
North Carolina
The entire South goes to McCain…yeah the African American vote comes out, but it won\’t be enough and the entire south has polled well for McCain all year.
Georgia
See North Carolina
Florida
This will be tight but I suspect Florida will go to McCain. Obama is barely leading but it\’s been trending strongly to McCain for awhile now. Plus polls tend to poll Democrats pretty strongly, as most of the recent ones here have. So thi I think falls to McCain although it might be a late night on this one….again.
Which brings us to two states….
Virginia
Obama is leading her, but McCain has been seeing a boost. Lots of new voters here but most of them are from very red areas of the state. So I\’m tempted to call this for McCain, but I don\’t see what would have caused lots of closet conservatives to suddenly come out. Slim Obama win here, although I am fully prepared to be wrong here.
Pennsylvania
And this is the state that could really make things interesting. With it McCain has a shot, without it McCain is toast. It should be suicidal blue, but Murtha and Democrats in general, have gone out of their way to make complete asshats of themselves. The Russell campaign has fired up conservatives and the blue machine is bleeding out of every orifice. We will not know the answer to this one until Wednesday at least. I suspect McCain will be vindicated for all the time he spent here.
End Result??
Obama 270 McCain 268, Obama will take the popular vote either way.
In order for McCain to win, the two states I suspect will swing his way are Nevada and/or Virginia.
[Crossposted at True North]
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Posted in 2008 Elections, True North | Comments Off on Presidential Election Predictions
OLD VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away. Come winter, the ant is warm and well fed.
The grasshopper has no food or shelter, so he dies out in the cold.
MORAL OF THE STORY: Be responsible for yourself!
MODERN VERSION:
The ant works hard in the withering heat all summer long, building his house and laying up supplies for the winter.
The grasshopper thinks the ant is a fool and laughs and dances and plays the summer away.
Come winter, the shivering grasshopper calls a press conference and demands to know why the ant should be allowed to be warm and well fed while others are cold and starving.
CBS, NBC, PBS, CNN, and ABC show up to provide pictures of the shivering grasshopper next to a video of the ant in his comfortable home with a table filled with food. America is stunned by the sharp contrast.
How can this be, that in a country of such wealth, this poor grasshopper is allowed to suffer so?
Kermit the Frog appears on Oprah with the grasshopper, and everybody cries when they sing, \’It\’s Not Easy Being Green.\’
Jesse Jackson stages a demonstration in front of the ant\’s house where the news stations film the group singing, \’We shall overcome.\’ Jesse then has the group kneel down to pray to God for the grasshopper\’s sake.
Nancy Pelosi & John Kerry exclaim in an interview with Larry King that the ant has gotten rich off the back of the grasshopper, and both call for an immediate tax hike on the ant to make him pay his fair share.
Finally, the EEOC drafts the Economic Equity & Anti-Grasshopper Act retroactive to the beginning of the summer.
The ant is fined for failing to hire a proportionate number of green bugs and, having nothing left to pay his retroactive taxes, his home is confiscated by the government.
The story ends as we see the grasshopper finishing up the last bits of the ant\’s food while the government house he is in, which just happens to be the ant\’s old house, crumbles around him because he doesn\’t maintain it.
The ant has disappeared in the snow.
The grasshopper is found dead in a drug related incident and the house, now abandoned, is taken over by a gang of spiders who terrorize the once peaceful neighborhood.
MORAL OF THE STORY: Be careful how you vote in 2008
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Posted in 2008 Elections | Comments Off on The Ant And The Grasshopper
Yeah, it\’s getting worse…
Doesn\’t help when you have St. Olaf professors BRAGGING about stealing campaign signs. Oddly enough that same professor is upset people are getting worked up about his stealing campaign signs and not thinking about the larger message of what he was doing. Apparently him being a complete asshat was not the larger message.
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EckerNet will be spreading it\’s filth via another medium this Saturday. I\’ll be on 1280 AM The Patriot from 3pm to 5pm this Saturday. The normally rationale King and Michael will be discussing local races on their program. Oddly enough, they\’ve invited AAA from the North Metro and myself from the South Metro onto their program. The fact that they invited us demonstrates how much they are scraping the bottom of the barrel on local talent.
If you\’re still interested despite that ringing endorsement by all means tune in to 1280 AM the Patriot this Saturday (11/1/08). We\’ll be on from 3pm to 5pm. But don\’t miss the Fraters and Hinderocker from 11am to 1pm and then Capt Ed and Mitch from 1pm to 3pm as well.
UPDATE: I\’m on the air. Wow…interesting. Not some much nervous as completely clueless what I\’m doing. So far I\’ve only been yelled at once.
UPDATE: Podcasts available….Hour 1 and Hour 2.
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Posted in 2008 Elections, Ecker Exploits, Local Events, Radio | 1 Comment »
The Minnesota Pre-General Election Campaign Finance reports were due yesterday (10/27/08). They are now available online here.
These are mostly viewed by political wonks trying to figure out what other candidates are doing or looking for shenanigans by their opponents. But it is a tool that more of the general public should use. You get to see how expensive politics really is and why candidates and political parties are so anxious for your money. Making your case to the public is expensive business.
On that note, I should probably point out that those of you that haven\’t made your PCR contribution yet still have time. What is PCR?? Well I\’ll tell you.
PCR stands for Political Contribution Refund, and is a program run by the state of Minnesota. Basically you can contribute money (max $50 per person) to a political party and/or candidate and the state will refund all or a portion of that contribution. Basically once you get the receipt for your donation, you will out a silly little form from the state (available here) and then send it in to the address provided on the form. You get your money back in a couple weeks.
Basically you can consider it a very short term loan to the political party/candidate of your choice. Costs you nothing, but the candidate/party appreciates it immensely. Most people don\’t even know about this program so I\’m guessing alot of you haven\’t taken advantage yet.
And if you\’re looking for a place to send that money, I\’d recommend here, but then again, I\’m biased. That is my BPOU so it\’s money I\’ll have a hand in spending…but I assure you it\’ll go towards getting more conservatives (not RINOs) into the MN State House and getting rid of some awful liberals.
But really any conservative party unit/candidate you send it to is going to make me happy.
[Crossposted at True North]
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Posted in 2008 Elections, Political Mumbojumbo, SD37, True North | Comments Off on Finance Reports Are In…
Megyn Kelly goes absolutely nuts on Obama spokesman Bill Burton and it turns into an verbal atomic wedgie.
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Posted in 2008 Elections, Main Stream Media, YouTube | 1 Comment »
General Colin Powell certainly had some interesting things to say in court when testifying for convicted felon Senator Stevens (R – Bridge to Nowhere).
One of the nation\’s best-known retired Army generals, Colin Powell, described Sen. Ted Stevens in court today as a \”trusted individual\” and a man with a \”sterling\” reputation.
\”He was someone whose word you could rely on,\” said Powell, secretary of state in President Bush\’s first term, who self-deprecatingly described himself as someone who retired as the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and then \”dabbled a bit in diplomacy.\”
That Powell, definitely a great judge of character. With judgement like that, how could doubt anyone else he endorses….say for president.
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Posted in 2008 Elections | Comments Off on Judgement You Can Believe In
Currently my Minnesota House District is represented by the disaster known as Rep. Madore. Fortunately, this election I have a much better option in the form of one Tara Mack. And thanks to her wide support her campaign has generated she has put together a television commercial, which is airing on Charter.
I wish her the best in the next election. It would be nice to have a representative that doesn\’t see me as a human ATM.
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Posted in 2008 Elections, Madore Watch, SD37 | 6 Comments »
Good riddance to a complete asshat.
Having a Democrat win that seat would be worth getting rid of his corruption and arrogance. If there is any disappointment it\’s in Alaskan Republicans for continuing to nominate this complete trainwreck for the past 40 years.
He\’ll probably get no actual jailtime but at least we can get rid of him….unless Alaska actually votes in a convicted felon as one of their US Senators.
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Posted in 2008 Elections | 5 Comments »