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T-1 Senate Update

Posted By Kevin On November 1, 2010 @ 1:40 am In 2010 Elections,True North | 1 Comment

Ok we have a day left before the election.  Republicans are all but certain to take the House, and predictions are by increasingly large numbers.  Are both houses of Congress likely to flip to Republicans, or does the House become Great Firewall of Washington DC?  We\’ll find out on Election Day, but until then we get to play the guessing game.

Does your guesstimate match mine?? Let\’s find out….

First the safe states….no drama here, no reason to do more than list them.   The safe Republican states include Alabama (R), Arizona (R), Arkansas (D), Georgia (R), Idaho (R), Indiana (D), Iowa (R), Kansas (R), Louisiana (R), North Carolina (R), North Dakota (D), Ohio (R), Oklahoma (R), South Carolina (R), South Dakota (R) and Utah (R).  Remember, note the three Republican pickups right off the bat.  Democrat\’s safe list is Connecticut (D), Delaware (D), Hawaii (D), Maryland (D), New York (D – Gillibrand), New York (D – Schumer), Oregon (D) and Vermont (D).  Notice the conspicuous lack of Rs in that list.

California (D) – Fiorina (D) has closed even further on Boxer (D) making this effectively a dead-heat. I have my doubts that it\’s going to be enough.  Although, if this seat flips it won\’t be surprise.  By the time we start getting results here, it will be clear the Republican wave has reached tsunami-like proportions, and in fact early evidence of that may very well influence voters in this race.  I\’m still sticking with my current classification, but only by the slimmest of margins.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Washington (D) – Another close race on the West Coast but this won\’t be impacted by early reports of a Republican tsunami, as effectively voting is already over in Washington.  Most locations vote by mail so most have already cast their ballots.  Did Rossi\’s (R) momentum come in time?? Or will Murray (D) have braved the margins.  It\’ll be close regardless but I see Murray sticking this one out.  Leaning Democrat retention.

West Virginia (D) – Well shit….Raese (R) has held a very small lead over Manchin (D) for awhile now.  Now out of the blue comes….well the blue candidate.  Surging at the last minute to a lead is Manchin, who may very well be moving out of the Governors mansion and into an apartment in DC.  Leaning Democrat retention.

Illinois (D) –  Don\’t make too much of Obama\’s rally.  While this race is so close, it hasn\’t been outside the margin of error in 8 months, it\’s also been notable for having an extremely low number of undecided voters.  Illinois voters have long since decided who they want, they just haven\’t been overly keen on sharing it with the rest of us.  While it\’s obvious that voters don\’t like either candidate, Kirk has held a lead, albeit statistically insignificant, for awhile now.  I suspect there is something to that and Obama\’s former seat will be one of the cornerstones of that Republican wave.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Nevada (D) – It\’s hard to think it\’s just coincidence that over the span of the last seven days, three different polling agencies, have generated that EXACT same results….Angle 49, Reid 45.  I think that pretty much tells the story there and I see no reason to argue with Nevada voters.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Colorado (D) – Whew!  Well that was close.  Buck (R) seems to have weathered his little screw-up and now hold a slight lead over Bennett (D) again.  This still comes down to turnout but in this climate that also favors Buck.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Pennsylvania (D) – This has tightened up lately but Toomey (R) appears to have stabilized his lead over Sestak (D).  Turnout will be key but I think Toomey has this in the bag.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Alaska (R) – This state has causes a lot of Republicans to collectively wet themselves these part couple days.  Murkowski (I) is suddenly polling neck and neck with Miller (R).  And McAdams (D) is now gaining support.  However, I\’m sticking to my guns here.  Murkowski is running a write-in campaign so there\’s that, plus she doesn\’t exactly have an easy name to spell. I still think Miller has got this one.  Leaning Republican retention.

Wisconsin (D) – With even the White House giving up on this seat, this is all but a safe Republican seat now.  Feingold (D) is out, Johnson (R) is in.  Sounds good to me!  Likely Republican takeover.

Kentucky (R) – Game. Set. Match.  Paul (R) has got this.  Likely Republican retention.

Missouri (R) – Blunt (R) over Carnahan (D).  Done deal.  Likely Republican retention.

New Hampshire (R) – Not even close.  Ayotte (R) over Hodes (D).  Likely Republican retention.

Florida (R) – Rubio (R) has it.  Even if every Meeks (D) voter jumped to Crist (I), Crist would still lose.  And with the shenanigans Crist has played, he deserves to lose.  I can\’t believe there is a single voter in Florida even considering voting for Crist??? If Crist doesn\’t come in dead last I call a pox on all of Florida and offer it up for sale to Cuba.  Likely Republican retention.

Okay so what’s the final score??

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My past predictions were 49, 48, 48, 47, 47, 48, 49 and 50 and now I\’m predicting 49.  On the plus side, I\’m no longer uncomfortable about calling Illinois and Colorado for Republicans.  On the other hand, West Virginia took a hard left turn ended up in Olbermann, Obamaland.  So the road to majority got a little tougher.  Normally I\’d say West Virginia needs to be recalled from it\’s AWOL status and then either Washington or California need to be flipped.  However, oddly enough, the West Virginia part of that seems to be the toughest part.  So the most realistic route is probably flipping both California and Washington.

With both Washington and California on the West Coast, the potential Republican tsunami has acquired stealth ability.  You\’re not going to see it until it\’s on top of you dropping the R-Bomb all over the place.  Although if West Virgina surprises and goes Republican, the West Coast may as well start heading to higher ground, as that Republican tsunami may very well have a Slurpee-sipping Godzilla surfing on it.  I\’m going to stop there as I don\’t dare stretch this metaphor any further.

And I continue in my belief that strategically we don\’t want Republicans to get to 51.  We\’re not going to accomplish anything with 51 we can\’t accomplish with 49.  In both cases, the Senate is effectively closed for 2 years.  And with Republicans controlling the House, Republicans will control any budget that gets sent to the Senate.  A Democrat majority can\’t assert itself for fear of it killing everything in conference.    Ideally Republican unfund most of the Obama agenda, toss a few scandal grenades at the White House and then call it a day and wait for 2012.

For those of you thinking that\’s an awfully shitty way to want your government to work, I\’d like to point out a couple things.  A stalled Congress is a good Congress.  And historically the economy has always performed it\’s best with a split Congress.  You want economic recovery?  Then you want Republicans throwing monkey-wrenches in every Congressional gear.  Embrace the stalemate!


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