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At the 11th hour of Arizona\’s SB1070 taking effect, the Obama Administration brought the state of Arizona to court to block it\’s enforcement.  Judge Susan Bolton subsequently issued a preliminary injunction to prevent the enforcement of certain provisions of the law.  Open borders activists have hailed this as a great victory while border enforcement activists have criticized the injunction.  So let\’s take a look at what exactly all happened today.

First of all those hoping to see the entire SB1070 tossed out, not only did that not happen today but it\’s not going to happen as SB1070 includes a severability clause, which means that if an invalid portion can be separated from the rest, it shall be toss out while the rest of the bill remains in place.  So let\’s set that aside right now.

The claim of the Obama Administration was that \”the power to regulate immigration is vested exclusively in the federal government, and that the provisions of S.B. 1070 are therefore preempted by federal law\” and they sought a preliminary injunction to block it\’s enforcement.  So what standard do we need to meet for that?

A plaintiff seeking a preliminary injunction must establish that he is likely to succeed on the merits, that he is likely to suffer irreparable harm in the absence of preliminary relief, that the balance of equities tips in his favor, and that an injunction is in the public interest.

So how did that work out for them??  Well for most of the bill the Judge decided that the Obama Administration was not likely to succeed on the merits of the challenge.  But there were four provisions that she did rule were likely to succeed on the merits in showing that those sections are preempted by federal law.

• Portion of Section 2 – requiring that an officer make a reasonable attempt to determine the immigration status of a person stopped, detained or arrested if there is a reasonable suspicion that the person is unlawfully present in the United States, and requiring verification of the immigration status of any person arrested prior to releasing that person
• Section 3 – creating a crime for the failure to apply for or carry alien registration papers
• Portion of Section 5 – creating a crime for an unauthorized alien to solicit, apply for, or perform work
• Section 6 – authorizing the warrantless arrest of a person where there is probable cause to believe the person has committed a public offense that makes the person removable from the United States

So why were these blocked? Well essentially it comes down to the interpretation of the specific wording of some of the sentences in these sections.  Which if you follow strictly to the letter of each sentence in isolation, suggests that law enforcement would have to verify the immigration status of every person they had even the most basic contact with, even if they knew they were a US citizen.  Obviously this would quickly overwhelm the Federal Government with requests and therefore would impede upon the Federal Government\’s ability to perform it\’s immigration enforcement duties.

So what\’s the direct impact of this injunction?  Well let\’s take a look at those provisions that were blocked.

Well the blocked portion of Section 2 pretty much has no impact, because even though it was the heart of SB 1070, it was actually MORE restrictive than federal law.  According to the SCOTUS ruling in Muehler vs Mena (2005), officers don\’t even need reasonable suspicion to question a person regarding their immigration status.  So actually this preliminary injunction increases the ability of local law enforcement to enforce immigration laws.

As far as Section 3 goes, it doesn\’t matter as this was already a federal crime (8 USCS 1304(a) and 1306(e)), so nothing changes by blocking this portion.

Portion of Section 5, well this is already covered by a variety of state and federal laws, including the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

And finally Section 6, this is already covered by Arizona law.  In fact the training materials for law enforcement states that this provision does not appear to change Arizona law.  Therefore repealing it basically does nothing.

So for those ranting and raving about this preliminary injunction, please understand that this has virtually no impact on the ability of Arizona law enforcement to do their job.  And this is just the start of the case, as Arizona can still argument for the merit of one or more of these provisions.  Moreover when you consider the political implications, as I will tomorrow, this is a win-win situation for border enforcement no matter how this turns out.

I\’ve participated in the illegal immigration debate for a long time, and the talking points from the open borders crowd tends to be the same.  In between cries of \”racism\” and \”bigotry\” comes the usual strawman argument of \”well you can\’t deport them all!\”  It\’s always seemed an odd talking point, seeming to gleefully accept the problem is just as bad as border enforcement activists suggest.  And it seems a bit disingenuous to claim that two extremes are only way to conduct things, either let everyone in or kick everyone out.

Of course, border enforcement activists like myself have insisted for years that there is lots of middle ground on this.  For example, if you force employers to check their new employees for legal status, illegal aliens will self-deport when there are no opportunities for employment.  Between that and the attrition of basic law enforcement, the problem pretty much takes care of itself over a few years.

Well as it turns out, that viewpoint was both correct and far too pessimistic on it\’s timeline.

The two women are among scores of illegal immigrant families across Phoenix hauling the contents of their homes into the yard this weekend as they rush to sell up and get out before the state law takes effect on Thursday.

The law, the toughest imposed by any U.S. state to curb illegal immigration, seeks to drive more than 400,000 undocumented day laborers, landscapers, house cleaners, chambermaids and other workers out of Arizona, which borders Mexico.

In a sign of a gathering exodus, Mexican businesses from grocers and butcher shops to diners and beauty salons have shut their doors in recent weeks as their owners and clients leave.

On Saturday and Sunday, Reuters counted dozens of impromptu yard sales in Latino neighborhoods in central and west Phoenix

\”They wanted to drive Hispanics out of Arizona and they have succeeded even before the law even comes into effect,\” said Aguilar, 28, a mother of three young children who was also offering a few cherished pictures and a stereo at one of five sales on the same block.

As it turns out it hasn\’t taken a single arrest or even a single status inquiry to accomplish a good portion of the job.  All it took is a government willing to stand up and enforce it\’s own laws.  These illegal aliens have stayed until now because they recognize the open secret that the Federal Government is a joke.  It\’s more likely to pander to what it considers future voters than actually enforce it\’s own laws.

Instead a state government with far less resources but with far more testicular fortitude, just has to threaten to enforce the law and illegal aliens scatter.  Nobody is under any illusions that all those illegal aliens are returning to their homes.  There are still plenty of other states which haven\’t yet supplanted the Federal Government spinal absenteeism.  But don\’t think that the lesson of Arizona is lost on all those states or their citizens, especially in these times of economic hardships and budget deficits, it appears as if La Bush\’s Law may have reached it\’s conclusion.

Gibb\’s admission that the Republicans may very well take over the majority in the the House has re-aligned all the talk about the upcoming election.  Mostly it\’s renewed talk about whether Republicans can retake the Senate.  It\’s a topic I\’ve covered several times before.  Republicans need to get to 51 seats, but the last two times we looked at how things were trending, we came up with 49 and 48.  Have things improved?

Well let\’s take a look at some of the more interesting races.  We\’ll start with those currently held by Democrats…

North Dakota – Republican Hoeven is beating Democrat Potter almost 4 to 1 in the polls.  Potter should count it as a moral victory if he can break 20% in the election…and the way the polls are looking I\’m not sure he can accomplish that.  Solid Republican takeover.

Indiana – This race stopped being interesting a long time ago and it\’s gotten even less interesting as Democrats Ellsworth falls further and further behind.  At this point Republican Coats could be caught with a dead hooker and a goat on top of a pile of cocaine and he\’d still win.  Solid Republican takeover.

Arkansas – The interesting part of this race is long in the past, namely the primary which would determine how Blanche Lincoln was going to be given the pink slip.  Now this race is just plain boring.  Democrat Halter never had a chance.  Even the scenario I described regarding Coats of Indiana wouldn\’t put this race in question.  Solid Republican takeover.

Delaware – I promise…this is the last blowout.  Last two times I offered to put money on this election, Republican Castle over Democrats Coons….now I\’ll give you 2:1 odds. Solid Republican takeover.

Nevada – The NRA\’s favorite candidate is make a race out of this as Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid defends his seat.  The dynamics of this race has definitely changed.  While most of Nevada already really disliked Reid, now a large plurality also really dislike Sharon Angle.  However, at the end of the day the voters have to pick one or the other and the public breakdown on the issues favors Angle more than it does Reid.  Nevada voters think the economy stink, that the stimulus didn\’t do crap, they want the health care law repealed and they think Arizona\’s new immigration law is a pretty good idea that they wouldn\’t mind trying in their own state.  Plus Reid has made several high profile gaffes lately, including his much lampooned claim that there are no illegal workers in Nevada.  Then a deceased Mormon woman, a key constituency for Reid, slammed him in her obituary.  There is reason to be concerned about this effectively-tied race….but I think in the end Angle pulls this out.  Leaning Republican takeover.

Illinois – Uh oh, this race is quickly falling apart.  While Democrat Giannoulias\’s support hasn\’t increased, Republican Kirk\’s has fallen, and in every possible category these two are tied.  Both candidates have flaws dragging them down.  Giannoulias is part of the corrupt Illinois political culture and Kirk has made false claims about his military record.  Illinois voters are pretty much split on the issues, although they very slightly favor Kirk.  On the other hand Obama is still popular here which favors Giannoulias.  Each candidate has the support of their parties voters and most of the independents fall Kirk\’s way…but there is a large plurality of independents that are still uncommitted.  The Holy Trinity for Republicans is at risk in Illinois….this race is entirely a toss-up.

Pennsylvania – Ok this race has closed a bit since we last took a look and yes there is reason to be concerned.  Now that I\’ve given the disclaimer, this is still looking favorable for the GOP.  Republican Toomey\’s support has never left the mid-40s, while Democrat Sestak has gone from the mid-30s to the mid-40s….although the higher numbers were mostly the result of his primary win and have since tapered off.  The breakdown on the issues remain pretty challenging for Sestak, especially the filing of the lawsuit against Arizona.  This race is closer than is preferred but it still leans Republican takeover.

Colorado – Well this race is turning out pretty interesting, especially considering it appeared to be one of the more boring races a few months ago.  Now both Republicans and Democrats have competitive primary battles.  Lt Gov Jane Norton has been the presumptive Republican candidate for awhile, but now the Tea Party candidate Ken Buck is capitalizing on Norton\’s reputation as the establishment candidate.  Meanwhile Democrats Andrew Romanoff and Michael Bennet are still in a virtual dead heat.  The way things have changed is actually pretty nice for Republicans as Ken Buck polls better against both Democrats.  Until the August 10th primary, there are still too many variables here to make too confident of a prediction, but it\’s tentatively leaning Republican at this point.

California – Really?? This seat actually appears to be in play?? I\’ve fought that perception for months but it\’s hard to continue to ignore polling data.  Latest polls show this a statistically dead heat.  In fact, Republican Fiorina is leading in recent polls over bat-shit crazy Boxer.   Ok we got that out of the way, but let\’s keep our perspective, this is still hippy-land people.  Obama is still popular here of all things, although they are split on health care and immigration.  I\’ll throw you a bone here, and upgrade this to leans Democrat retention but that\’s it.

Wisconsin – Ok this race is basically just starting.  Last we looked Republican Johnson was fresh into the race and there was no polling history.  I gave Democrat Feingold the nod although there were areas where Johnson could gain ground and damned if the guy hasn\’t.  Realistically this race is a deadheat, but perhaps the most telling about just how desperate Feingold is becoming is that he\’s running TV ads claiming to be a political outsider….despite being in the Senate since 1993….17 years folks.  Technically Johnson still have a primary to pass but he\’s a pretty solid choice for that not much to worry about short of it sucking up resources.  Speaking of resources Johnson has raised $557,774 since mid-MAY…..that\’s impressive for a candidate nobody heard of 3 months ago.  Independents break pretty solid for Johnson and half of Wisconsinites say the economy sucks balls.  They hate the health care bill, the love the Arizona law and they think the stimulus plan was a waste of money.  Despite the close polling, all the factors are breaking Johnson\’s way….although he\’s still new and a political novice.  This seat has gone from Democrat retention to toss-up and the only thing keeping me from calling this leaning Republican takeover is that there is still very little polling history to work with here.  This is a toss-up….for now.

Washington -Democrat Senator Patty Murray has been statistically tied with Republican Dino Rossi.  This state is a pretty familiar story.  Position on the issues generally favors Rossi and so does the breakdown of independents but I still have to give this one to Murray.  Washington is a blue state and Murray\’s incumbency trumps Rossi\’s close polling.  Although this race is ripe for change, and has been for months…that\’s the problem, it hasn\’t.  Even in this year I have to give this one a leaning Democrat retention.

And now the Republican held seats….

Florida – Frigging Crist….this should be an easy Republican win but now it\’s interesting.  Democrat Meeks is out of the picture, but billionaire Jeff Greene is trying to muscle his way in as the Democrat candidate.  Oddly enough, he\’s probably Rubio\’s best strategy for a win, because if Democrats don\’t have a viable candidate they are likely to fall to Crist and give him the win.  The demographics here are really very interesting.  Rubio takes most Republican but some still side with Crist.  Meanwhile Democrats are split between Crist and their candidate.  Rubio has a slim lead in the polls but everything has been very fluid and I suspect it all hinges on where the Democrats go, Crist or Greene?  Either Rubiou or Crist is going to win this but the question for Crist is who does he caucus with?  Former Republican who has been drifting left.  Let\’s call this a toss-up.

Ohio – Ohio is living up to it\’s name as a purple state.  Everything about this says toss-up.  Polling has NEVER left the margin of error and it\’s gone back and forth.  The breakdown on the issues strong favors \”Hells if I know\”.  There are a couple factors favoring Republican Porter against Democrat Fisher but they get lost in the mash of evenly split everything else.  I\’m not even confident enough in anything to call this a toss-up as either outcome is just as likely as the reanimated corpse of Walt Disney moving to Ohio and winning.

Kentucky – Okay feeling a little more confident here.  Republican Rand Paul has stopped the bleeding and is maintaining a very modest lead over Democrat Jack Conway.  Both the demographics and the breakdown on the issues heavily favors Paul.  And this race has calmed down to sub-circus magnitude which favors the candidate with the lead.  I was very concerned with this race earlier, now I\’m fairly confident in calling this leaning Republican retention.

Missouri – This race is similar to Kentucky while being very different.  Sure Republican Blunt holds a modest lead over Democrat Carnahan.  And the breakdown of the issues and the demographics favor Blunt.  That said the passion index favors Carnahan and Blunt\’s polling shows vulnerability.  Calling this a toss-up.

New Hampshire -  I had some initial concerns about this race but it seems to be working itself out.  Republican Ayotte now has a two-digit lead on Democrat Hodes and most of the factors favor her.  Ayotte is facing a bit of a scandal in the form of a mortgage fraud case that happened while she was Attorney General, and she didn\’t handle questions about it very well.  That said she\’s pretty solidly ahead in the polling.  Besides even her GOP primary opponents are beating Hodes at this point….so even if she dropped back one of them would likely beat Hodes.  Calling this one likely Republican retention.

North Carolina – I included this state in my last analysis because Senator Burr was showing weakness.  That hiccup appears to have passed and he\’s solidly in control again.  Republican retention.

Where\’s that bring us?

Well of the Republican seats they are either toss-ups or Republican retentions….so it\’s unlikely Republican lose any ground.  Democrats on the other hand have 59 seats (including 2 Independents) currently so they can lose 9 and still control the Senate and I still don\’t see a viable path for that to happen.  They definitely lose Arkansas, Delaware, North Dakota and Indiana and they likely lose Pennsylvania and Nevada.  That\’s six seats, even if Colorado falls that\’s only seven….three short of what Republicans need.

Realistically, at this point I see the Senate breakdown as 53 Democrats and 47 Republicans.  Still that\’s not bad.  It means Democrats can\’t force their agenda through just by flipping either the Maine sisters and/or Scott Brown.  They have to deal honestly with Republicans and have to engage them at the very beginning of writing the legislative language….which means no more exhausting and potentially damaging rearguard action for the Republicans, although they have performed admirably in that regard!

End result, Senate is still not in play.

[Crossposted at True North]

Obama has had a rough week already, and that\’s not even including his golf game.  His Democrat Governors are openly questioning the wisdom of his lawsuit against Arizona.  Normally safe Democrats are now in trouble.  And the worst, for our narcissistic President, now even Democrat-friendly poll agencies are showing Obama deep underwater amongst the public.

Part of Obama\’s problem is he\’s caught in a Catch-22 of his own rhetoric.  The economy, unemployment and overspending are dragging down his poll numbers which limits his ability to be an effective at pushing his agenda.  On the economy and unemployment he can\’t talk up even the smallest bits of good news, lest he appear out of touch to a hurting American public.  And he can\’t cut spending because his lofty promises of being everything to everyone during the campaign require massive amounts of it.  As long as this election is a referendum on his performance, Democrats chances of salvaging even a moral victory from 2010 are almost non-existent.  Which is why White House press secretary Robert Gibb\’s recent statements that Republicans could take the House is political strategy at it\’s best.

MR. GIBBS:  I think there\’s no doubt that there are a lot of seats that will be up, a lot of contested seats.  I think people are going to have a choice to make in the fall.  But I think there\’s no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control.  There\’s no doubt about that. This will depend on strong campaigns by Democrats.

There are two things being done here.  First, and as subtle as a flying brick, this is a challenge to Democrats nationwide….quit sulking and get working.  You can\’t just accept a GOP wave, you\’re going to have to fight and make them earn it.  But more importantly this was a very clever move to reframe this next election.  By pushing the \”Republicans could be in control\” point, Gibbs is no longer making this about Obama.  Now this is a referendum on Republicans vs Democrats.  This is an attempt to exploit the one silver lining that Democrats have in established polling data.

If there are two things that the polling data has repeatedly shown it\’s that Obama\’s as popular as vuvuzela at a wedding ceremony.  But it\’s also shown that Republicans are almost as unpopular.  It\’s not that the public has fallen in love with the GOP, they\’ve called a hex on both houses.  The GOP hasn\’t done anything to deserve a electoral tidal wave, they\’re simply in the right place at the right time.  Obama and the Democrats overpromised and overreached and the GOP is there to benefit from the wreckage, but only because they are the least ugly of the stepsisters.

Making this election about Obama is a guaranteed loser for the Democrats.  But by making this about who the public trusts most, Democrats or Republicans, suddenly it\’s not so bad.  Sure Democrats are just as unpopular as Republicans, but their popularity falls within the margin of error on most polls.  In a political climate like this, campaigning to a draw is a unbelievable coup for the Democrats.  And if they can frame this election as who the public trusts more, that\’s effectively what they\’ll do.

Republicans have long been expected to retake the House and the talking heads have even begun to seriously speculate about the GOP retaking the Senate, which I\’ll touch on again tomorrow.  But if this ploy to reframe the election works, you can forget all that, and Democrats remain in control of both.

[Crossposted at True North]

U.S. Government Stages Fake Coup To Wipe Out National Debt

Earlier today I tweeted that the NRA was thinking of selling out it\’s principles by supporting Harry Reid in this re-election campaign against pro-gun Sharron Angle, after seeing an article on Red State about it…

Now, I’m getting credible reports that the NRA is leaning toward endorsing Harry Reid, even though the NRA is finally saying it will score a vote on Kagan — something that was not a sure thing.

Why would they do this? Why would they go out of their way to protect a Senator who has demonstrated a repeated hostility to the Second Amendment in his votes and his leadership?

Well, I thought perhaps the NRA carveout in the DISCLOSE Act might be the answer. But, there is more. It turns out, Reid secured a $61 million earmark for a gun range in Clark County, Nevada.

That sounds you heard was jaws dropping at gun ranges all around the country.

Now granted the NRA hasn\’t always been the best partner of Second Amendment activists.  They have been reluctant to fill their role, more concerned with protecting their power than using it to advance the reason for that power.  Good example would be the now groundbreaking Supreme Court case Heller vs DC, which for once declared that the Second Amendment protected an individual\’s right to keep and bear arms, where the NRA was reluctant to get involved, fearing the potential outcomes.  The NRA was also virtually non-existent in the effort to get a carry law passed in Minnesota.  But they also have numbers and clout and they can accomplish a great deal when they decide to do it.

Which is why it\’s all the more tragic that the NRA would even be considering this.  I\’m not sure of the reason, it\’s all speculation at this point, but Wayne LaPierre being crazy is a distinct possibility.  While the NRA is trying to claim that Reid has been a big supporter of the Second Amendment, his voting record tells a vastly different story.  Reid getting one shooting range built does not erase years of anti-Second Amendment votes.  The NRA needs to understand that, and soon.

Now shortly after my tweet, Andy Aplikowski, took up his torch and pitchfork, a rather predictable reaction to such news…

After I saw the reports that the NRA was considering or has endorsed Democrat Majority Leader and all around scumbag Harry Reid, I sent response back to the NRA demanding to know how to cancel my membership.

Now I can\’t fault Andy\’s reaction, it was my initial reaction as well.  But at the same time, I do have to recognize the NRA for what they are….a huge lobbying organization that can have great value if managed properly.  It is worth trying to save, and it\’s worth noting that the NRA hasn\’t endorsed Reid yet, and it\’s our job to make sure they don\’t.  You can call the NRA at (800) 392-VOTE (8683) and you can write them at the following address:

National Rifle Association
11250 Waples Mill Road
Fairfax, VA 22030

Or send an email to them here.

Make sure they understand that an endorsement of Reid means they lose your membership fees….forever.  Make sure that they understand you\’re tired of their lackluster performance.  And make sure they understand that there are other pro-Second Amendment organizations that you can support instead.

If that doesn\’t work, or you\’re still bitter at the NRA, may I suggest several other organization that are worthy of your support??

For you Minnesotans, there is hardly a better organization than the Gun Owners Civil Rights Alliance (GOCRA).  It\’s a small local organization that has been at the forefront of every firearms rights battle in Minnesota, and every carry permit holder in the state (all 75,000 of you!) owe them a great deal of thanks.  Now I\’ll warn you their website is nothing to brag about, but they do good work where it counts.  You can become a supporter here, and know your dollars aren\’t going to a fancy website, they are going to support the Second Amendment in Minnesota.

If you\’re thinking more on a national scale, allow me to recommend the Gun Owners of American (GOA), a no-compromise top-notch organization.  While it doesn\’t have the millions of members the NRA can claim, it does have a respectable 300,000 members and growing.  They spend several million dollars every year lobbying Congress on behalf of the Second Amendment.  You can join them here.

But regardless of what you do, do take my advice and lobby the NRA to continue lobbying on behalf of us.  Call, mail, email, whatever….just make sure they know that their members have noticed their impending betrayal and we\’ll not going to overlook it.

[Crossposted at True North]

In honor of Obama\’s immigration speech today I figured this was an awfully fitting video to offer.