EckerNet.Com

The big news out of the Democrats most hated messenger today is the news that Republicans now enjoy a 9% advantage in a generic ballot.

Republican candidates start the year by opening a nine-point lead over Democrats, the GOP\’s biggest in several years, in the latest edition of the Generic Congressional Ballot.

The new Rasmussen Reports national telephone survey shows that 44% would vote for their district’s Republican congressional candidate while 35% would opt for his or her Democratic opponent.

This all sounds great, except for several different factors.

First of all, if you track the past generic ballot results, the large margin is not the result of Republicans increasing their public appeal.  In fact, Republican\’s rating has risen only 2% since midsummer.  The real change has been the self-destruction of the Democrats over time.  They\’ve dropped 7 points since Obama\’s inauguration, and just 3 points in the last month.  The voters haven\’t rediscovered the Republicans, they\’ve just discovered the Democrats and they don\’t like what they see.

Secondly, this is a generic ballot for a reason, it measures the general overall feeling the public has towards a party.  When you start adding in names and personalities, things get more fuzzy.  While no doubt Democrats are having a tougher time in elections across the country they are still aren\’t in danger of losing either the House or the Senate.  If you look at the way the polls are trending, you\’ll find the numbers breakdown indicating gains for Republicans that may be substantial but even the rosiest predictions don\’t put either the Senate or House in jeopardy.  Even if all the tossup races fall to the Republicans, which a majority likely will, Republicans still wouldn\’t attain the necessary numbers.

Of particular worry to the Republicans should be the Tea Party movement.   After all, like we already saw, it\’s not that Republicans are suddenly more popular, it\’s that Democrats are more unpopular.  And right now the most popular affiliation in the entire country is the Tea Party movement, and despite outward appearances the Tea Party activists are not necessarily natural allies of the Republicans.  The Republican Party for a long time has abandoned it\’s principles and participated in the spending bonanza and corruption that is Washington DC.  If you don\’t believe me, just ask their chairman.  On paper the GOP should be the natural home for the Tea Party activists, but it\’s been a long time since the GOP practiced what it preached, and quite simply many (most?) of the Tea Party activists don\’t trust the GOP farther than they can throw it…..and elephants are heavy.

If the GOP wants to party like it\’s 1994 this November they have to find a way to embrace the Tea Party movement in a meaningful and believable way.  The Tea Party activists have been lied to by both parties now, and they aren\’t likely to forgive that easily.  Good luck GOP, you\’re going to need it.

[Crossposted at True North]