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Yeah, I hate it but it\’s what everyone expects so I\’ll give it a shot. I stand by my prediction last December that Obama wins so if that\’s all you were wondering, then you can wander elsewhere now. If you want to see how I break down the states, then continue.

Basically I took a look at the electoral map at RCP. The states that were either solid red or blue, I agreed with but anything that was listed as leaning or toss-up I gave a quick prediction for.

Here we go….

Arizona
Seriously, Arizona is not up for grabs. Only Al Gore is inept enough to lose his own state.

Colorado
Bush won this state, but it\’s been trending blue and McCain hasn\’t led in the polls since August, and then it was by less than a point.

New Mexico
Bill Richardson is the gov, and he\’s publicly advocated for Obama. Combine that with the fact that Bush barely won this story in 2004. Since mid-October Obama has been over 50%. Win for Obama

Nevada
Usually this is a gimme for Republicans, but Nevada has had a bad year. Despite that the polls have stayed close since early October and it\’s gotten worse for McCain since. Obama flips this state.

Montana
Obama pulled out of these states for a reason. If he thought there was a chance he\’d have kept at least a token staff there. Plus polls have reliably been showing McCain in this reliably Republican state. Seriously, it\’s McCain, but a non-trivial margin here.

North Dakota
WTF?? See Montana.

South Dakota
See Montana. Rinse. Repeat. Not even close. McCain by double digits.

Minnesota
Regardless of what the GOP wants to claim, there isn\’t a chance for McCain in Minnesota. Obama win.

Arkansas
McCain is winning by a huge margin here. Not a difficult call.

Missouri
Obama has never been above 50%, McCain has. Missouri had a brief identity crisis and is in the McCain territory and moving his direction. Possibility of an upset here but I have to call it a McCain win here.

Indiana
Indiana may have a 110% voter turnout, but it\’s been polling solidly McCain except for a brief blip and it\’s back in McCain territory now. It\’s a solidly red state….and polls over rate Democrats. McCain win.

Ohio
The home of Joe the Plumber, but then again ACORN has seen a lot of activity here. I suspect the voters Joe energized trump the fake registered voters that don\’t show up. Plus many of the Democrats here don\’t seem to want to align themselves with Obama. When the ground troops do that, it\’s a sign things aren\’t going well. McCain win but it\’ll be a squeaker.

West Virginia
This is solid McCain, probably by double digits.

North Carolina
The entire South goes to McCain…yeah the African American vote comes out, but it won\’t be enough and the entire south has polled well for McCain all year.

Georgia
See North Carolina

Florida
This will be tight but I suspect Florida will go to McCain. Obama is barely leading but it\’s been trending strongly to McCain for awhile now. Plus polls tend to poll Democrats pretty strongly, as most of the recent ones here have. So thi I think falls to McCain although it might be a late night on this one….again.

Which brings us to two states….

Virginia
Obama is leading her, but McCain has been seeing a boost. Lots of new voters here but most of them are from very red areas of the state. So I\’m tempted to call this for McCain, but I don\’t see what would have caused lots of closet conservatives to suddenly come out. Slim Obama win here, although I am fully prepared to be wrong here.

Pennsylvania
And this is the state that could really make things interesting. With it McCain has a shot, without it McCain is toast. It should be suicidal blue, but Murtha and Democrats in general, have gone out of their way to make complete asshats of themselves. The Russell campaign has fired up conservatives and the blue machine is bleeding out of every orifice. We will not know the answer to this one until Wednesday at least. I suspect McCain will be vindicated for all the time he spent here.

End Result??

Obama 270 McCain 268, Obama will take the popular vote either way.

In order for McCain to win, the two states I suspect will swing his way are Nevada and/or Virginia.

[Crossposted at True North]