Naval Blockade Of Iran Likely
August 14th, 2008 by 
Kevin
I wrote previously that we had sent two aircraft carriers and their battle groups to join two battlegroups already in the Persian Gulf, and about the significance of this move. At the time I theorized that the move was related to a move against Iran, but then later thought that perhaps we have advance knowledge of the strike on Georgia. Turns out, not only was I right on both counts, but what I then termed as “not a trivial chess piece in a global chessboard” is just the tip of the iceberg.
There is a massive naval fleet heading for the gulf, most of which just completed Operation Brimstone, a joint US/UK/French/Brazil naval wargame. From descriptions of Operation Brimstone, it appears it concentrated on international cooperation to conduct military operations in littoral waters. All handy skills to have if one is planning a international naval blockade of another country.
Previously, I was aware of only the USS Theodore Roosevelt, the USS Ronald Reagan and their battle groups heading for the Gulf. Now it appears they are joined by the USS Iwo Jima, an amphibious assault ship (similar to the Peleliu), the UK Royal Navy HMS Ark Royal aircraft carrier, and her battle group, along with assorted French naval assets including the nuclear attack submarine Amethyste and French Naval Rafale fighter jets on-board the USS Theodore Roosevelt. By virtually any measure, that is a massive amount of firepower, especially combined with the forces already in the Gulf. Forces which include the USS Abraham Lincoln and her battlegroup, the USS Peleliu and her battle group, at least one US nuclear attack sub and miscellaneous other forces. This is the largest buildup of US allied naval forces in the Gulf since the invasion of Iraq.
There are several possible reasons for this buildup of forces:
1) The US and several allies have decided to enforce at least a partial naval blockade of Iran
2) The US and several allies are preparing for an Israeli and/or US strike on Iranian nuclear facilities
3) The US and several allies are preparing for an invasion of Iran.
Option #3 is the least likely, as this buildup is happening absent any major redeployment of air and ground forces. Both of these would be necessary for an invasion. Also with it’s easily deployed ground forces already committed in Iraq and Afghanistan, and with the potential of action in Georgia. The timing of this, make option #3 severely unlikely.
Option #2 while possible, has become increasingly unlikely. Israel certainly has the capability. And if they feel the US isn’t gonna do it, then they may feel the need to step up. And they may very well be at that stage. However, the US just rejected a request from Israel for military equipment necessary to make a strike on Iran. So clearly the Israelis lack some equipment necessary to make a strike. Even if they could manufacture it themselves, they are clearly not at a stage were a strike on Iran is imminent hence no need for a force buildup.
Which leaves us option #3, which I think it increasingly likely, especially considering that a majority of the forces involved just participated in a training exercise practicing precisely this. Plus a naval blockade would be a likely next step in the escalation of force to get Iran to comply with UN demands. While Iran is rich in oil, it has limited domestic refining capability. Which means while it exports lots of oil, it also has to import benzene in massive quantities. So a naval blockade would cripple their economy and that tends to draw attention.
Now certainly a much smaller force would certainly be capable of a naval blockade. The fact that such a large force is being arrayed also says quite a bit about the operational planning that went into this, and tends to imply two different possibilities.
First that it was considered possible that such a blockade would be resisted either by Iran or others (i.e. Russia). In the latter case, this formidable force would likely be intended to make intervention seem futile, or at least impractical. While Russia does have forces in the area, most notably the carrier Admiral Kuznetsov, in the Mediterranean, it’s aircraft would have to pass over Iraq, and the US forces deployed there, in order to reach this flotilla.
Almost certainly the Iranians would attempt to resist as well, through quite a few different methods. Air attacks from land based aircraft would seemingly be met by aircraft from the four different carriers. Helicopters from the amphibious assault ships would likely be tasked to anti-sub detail. And the numerous warships in the battlegroups would fend of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard high-speed boats, functioning as suicide boats, similar to the attack on the USS Cole.
Almost certainly there would be an attempt by Iran to close the oil route chokepoint (only 21 miles wide) of the Strait of Hormuz, since one side is controlled by Iran, and the other by US allies United Arab Emirates and Oman. With the forces currently being positioned in the Gulf, it seems very likely that the US would be able to keep this route open, and prevent any attempts by Iran to break through the blockade.
Of course, a naval blockade is generally considered an act of war. So it’s unlikely that everything will be just this simple. The board is set, the chess pieces are moving. This game is about to get interesting.
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Posted in Iran, Iraq, Middle East Mayhem, Military | 
August 18th, 2008 at 11:13 am
I think you are wrong. So, where are all these ships ? The two ships heading to the Iranian area are more than likely, rotation replacements. So which way is the Armada going ? Through Gibraltor, the Suez ? Somebody might see them without a Star Wars cloaking device. Around Africa ? Or the long way round Cape Horn. Its over 2 weeks since Brimstone, where is the Armada ?
August 18th, 2008 at 2:18 pm
Rotation Replacements? You obviously did not read my first post on this issue. The Lincoln’s tour is not up until the end of October.
And when carriers move it’s seldom via stealth. You just can’t easily hide a carrier, much less the vast armada that goes with them. If I remember correctly the Suez cannot fit supercarriers, hence they’d probably have to take the horn. And the Reagan is coming from the direction of Japan?
And yeah it’s been over 2 weeks. However, logistically speaking that’s not a huge amount of time considering the forces being assembled. And I have to imagine the crisis in Georgia is affecting the timetable a bit.
Any more snark you want to toss my way?
August 25th, 2008 at 4:04 pm
Dear Admiral : Another week has gone by and where is your armada ? Are we in the sitzkrieg phase ? Don’t worry, I give the lefties a hard time too. Bob
August 25th, 2008 at 4:06 pm
Considering that the conflict in Georgian means that Iran essentially controls a vast majority of the oil flowing to Europe, do you really think it’s wise to begin a blockade??
And if you have a better idea on why quite a bit of naval hardware was just moved to the Gulf then I’m all ears.
August 28th, 2008 at 1:49 pm
Reports of impending Iran blockade are false, US Dept. of Defense tells Post
http://pqasb.pqarchiver.com/jpost/access/1534152541.html?dids=1534152541:1534152541&FMT=ABS&FMTS=ABS:FT&date=Aug+14%2C+2008&author=YAAKOV+LAPPIN&pub=Jerusalem+Post&edition=&startpage=2&desc=Reports+of+impending+Iran+blockade+are+false%2C+US+Dept.+of+Defense+tells+Post
Also reported heading toward Iran is another nuclear- powered carrier, the USS Ronald Reagan and its Carrier Strike Group Seven; the USS Iwo Jima [amphibious assault ship], the Royal Navy aircraft carrier HMS Ark Royal and a number of French warships, including the nuclear hunter- killer submarine Amethyste,” the Middle East Times reported. The force will join two other American naval battle groups in the Gulf, the report added.
You have to pay to read the rest of the article.
August 28th, 2008 at 1:59 pm
Interesting, thank you for letting me know. I’ll have to see if I can find more at a non-pay location.
I’d be rather curious why all that military hardware is being sent to the Gulf. That amount of firepower is unprecedented since the beginning of the Gulf War. A blockade seemed most likely, but if not that then what??
August 28th, 2008 at 2:29 pm
My original point is simple. It is not likely there is any immediate blockade. The US Navy, Army, Af have war games all the time. Then the participants go on to their next duty station wherever. I doubt very seriously that Bush is going into a blockade that would drive fuel prices up right before an election. After the election, who knows. This whole Op Brimstone thing has fed the paranoia of the Left. Not being a right winger, I am not a good judge of how they are taking it. I did see one Christian Zionist web site with a picture of Jesus and a mushroom cloud calling for war to fulfill Christian Armageddon.
August 28th, 2008 at 2:45 pm
I realize we have war games all the time.
I noticed the movement of all that military hardware first and figured there had to be a damn good reason for all that. Carriers cost too much to just move around for no reason.
Given the force allocation and the recent training most of the force had received it seemed a likely explanation.
However, if this is true that that is NOT the case, I’m still a little curious just what the hell we are doing.
This is more than a simple duty rotation, not only is it off-schedule but it’s also too large of a force for that.
October 16th, 2008 at 5:45 pm
Its 3am , half past October, the phone rings in Nancy Pelosi’s house ” Nancy, do you know where that fleet I sent to blockade Iran ?. ”
” No, Mr. President, says Nancy half awake, ” I am not even sure where we shelved the resolution after the right and left blogosphere went nuts. I even had to deny me and the Israeli official had a talk about it. Call Dick Cheney. He is next line not me. Oh, he is in the hospital.”
So where is that fleet ?
October 16th, 2008 at 5:51 pm
The Lincoln passed the Cape of Good Hope on the 7th on it’s way home.
The Teddy actually just pulled into the gulf a few days ago and remains there along with the Reagan. The USS Peleliu actually had a run in with the Iranians about a week ago.
So other than the Lincoln the above ships are currently in the Gulf.
Does that answer your smartass question?