EckerNet.Com

So you probably heard that Iran’s Revolutionary Guard made some aggressive moves towards several US Navy vessesl in the Hormuz Strait recently. You can read the details elsewhere, but it seems pretty clear it was staged by Iran. The only question being why?

The whole “we didn’t know who they were” excuse from Iran doesn’t compute. They aggressively sought a confrontation with an unidentified superior force?? Right, I don’t buy it. Even if they were packed with explosives, yeah, I don’t buy it. No American Captain is going to let his ship become the next USS Cole. And identification is bogus, because then the obvious question because which other Navy in the region justifies this sort of approach by inferior Iranian forces??

In other words it was either a probe to test American resolve and the possibility of nabbing a few American hostages like they did with the British. See how close you can get before the bullets fly. Could you nab a few US sailors?? Could you recreate the Cole?

Alternately this could be a deliberate attempt to racket up tensions again. Tensions have diminished as of late, and I think it’s no small coincidence that we see stories that Ahmadinejad is losing support in Iran. I don’t think it would be beyond Ahmadinejad’s capabilities to stage a small international incident to reestablish his “Us Against The World” coalition. Getting everyone to rally behind him against outside aggression again?? Wouldn’t be the first time a tyrant used fear to keep the peasants in line.

Actually it seems the most likely reason, as anything else just comes across as too amateurish.

Also some have pointed out that maybe it’s not that big of a deal, since China has been doing kinda the same thing. And the Soviets used to do the same thing back in the Cold War. Oh, and by the way if you’re interested in those sort of Soviet-US Cold War incidents “Blind Man’s Bluff” is an EXCELLENT read.

However, neither of these are the same thing.. The incidents with the Soviets were for the most part accidents in a dangerous game with a non-existent margin of error. One side tailing the other, two opposing forces in such proximity WILL cause an accident sooner or later.

The incidents with the Chinese are also different. Essentially the US Navy and the Chinese Navy, have been engaging in a massive dick-wagging competition for several years now, with control of the South China Sea, and to some extent the Pacific, at stake. Basically each side is trying to “one-up” the other to prove capabilities. And just plain let the other know that if the manure hit the rotating air circulation appliance, they would be dead by now. Consider it a international version of “Tag”.

In both cases, neither side was really looking to aggressively create an incident. This Iranian incident, combined with the radio transmissions that preceded it sound like they are an entirely different story.