Ok so a lot has happened lately, most of this is information you can find elsewhere, but I’m boiling it all down into the most up to date information and putting it in one place to make things easier for everyone (myself included).
How It Begins…
Well the usual gang of suspects (Kennedy, Bush, McCain, Specter, etc) have returned to the scene of the crime. On Tuesday they will introduce a NEW comprehensive immigration bill S 1639, which is basically the old amnesty bill S 1348, but supposedly with all the previous amendments added in (I’m still verifying that).
That will be introduced on Tuesday, and they’ll have to hold a cloture vote to begin debate on the bill. Then debate begins. They’ll have to have a cloture vote to end debate and then vote on the actual bill. Reid hopes to have that all happen in the span of one week. Where votes happen on the amendments is still pretty fuzzy, because of the very bizarre and unprecedented manner in which they are trying to force this through, which brings me to….
The Debate…
One of the tactics used with great success last time was that Senators would object to the introduction of an amendment and just plain not allow it to the floor. This time it’ll be different.
In secret backroom negotiations, supporters of this bill have come up with roughly 22 amendments they feel are “worthy” of introduction. They combined all of them into one behemoth amendment. Now according to Senate rules, apparently Senators have the ability to demand that an amendment can be broken up into multiple parts after it’s introduced, and they are automatically introduced. It’s known as a “Clay Pigeon” amendment and this tactic has apparently never been used in the fashion it’s going to be.
Senator Reid will introduce this behemoth amendment and then demand that it be broken up into it’s individual parts, which allows them to reach the floor without anyone objecting to them. Then debate will begin on the roughly 22 amendments, which will allow Reid and his cronies to monopolize debate time and control the floor of the Senate.
Meanwhile in order to get one of their amendments into this selective group, Senators had to agree to vote for cloture on the bill. If this sounds familiar to anyone that’s been to church (or heard of one), it should be. It’s fairly similiar to the deal Satan is said to make with people….your eternal soul for temporary happiness. By the way, Senator Coleman is one of the Senators that made this deal, as his “sanctuary cities” amendment is reportedly one of the illustrious 22.
I’ve seen a list of at least some of the amendments that were supposed to be in the 22, and so far I haven’t seen anything that would even begin to address some of the biggest problems with this amnesty bill. And I’ve heard the same from others who have apparently seen more complete lists. This list is being kept so secret even the New York Times hasn’t published it yet and they’ll leak any damn thing. So that alone should tell you alot about this list of amendments
The Battle Field
So where will this all happen?
Clearly the first best chance of defeating this bill is either of the two cloture votes in the Senate. You need 60 votes for cloture, but only 50 to pass the bill. So if it gets past cloture, it’s almost guaranteed to pass. And since I know politicians are going to try to spin this bullshit, let me address this right off the bat. A VOTE FOR CLOTURE IS A VOTE FOR AMNESTY. Quite a few politicians will argue that yeah, they voted for cloture but then voted against the bill. Bullshit, they know as well as I do that those 10 votes are going to engineered and allocated to politicians whose political careers are in jeopardy in ‘08 if they vote for the actual bill. Watch for Coleman to pull this stunt.
So when you contact your Senators, tell them to vote against cloture, don’t believe their BS on voting against the bill. If it’s killed, cloture is where the bill will be done.
If this bill passes the Senate, the battle moves to the House….ALL of which is up for re-election in ‘08, so they have to pay more attention to how great the opposition is for this bill. And while the Democrats hold a larger majority in the House, many of them are “Blue Dog” Democrats, who campaigned on a strict “no amnesty” platform in very competitive districts. And since we just had 50 Democrats vote for a no federal emergency funding for sanctuary cities, it’s highly unlikely that the Democrats will line up behind this bill, much less the Republicans. And House leaders are saying they aren’t even going to bother unless 70 House Republicans agree to support it….and that is not likely.
In the event, that it passes the House, it goes to Conference Committee to work out possible differing versions of the bill. Here another opportunity is presented and where some lucky Republicans get the chance to distinguish themselves. Senator DeMint (and others) can block appointees to the conference committee…if they can do that long enough, it won’t get settled during this legislative session and effectively dies.
However, even if this passes the Senate, it’ll be a disaster for the Republican Party. And while that isn’t the only, or even close to being the most important, reason this bill needs to die, it’s one that conservatives should be aware of.
The Players
This issue is noteworthy, not just for its substance, but also the mix of people that have lined up on either side, and the speed with which some have switched sides.
With polls showing widespread opposition to this bill, including a new Zogby poll (usually favorable to Democrats) showing only 3% of the public views Congress’s handling of immigration favorably, and just 38% having a favorable view of this bill, it’s no surprise that most of the defections have been to the opposition. In addition, Democrats conducted their own poll and found overwhelming opposition to the bill.
Bush, Kennedy and McCain had enlisted four Republicans as part of the original backroom negotiations, Kyl, Cornyn, Chambliss and Isakson. With the recent surprise defections of Chambliss and Isakson, due to extreme public pressure, only Kyl remains behind the bill.
Senator Kay Bailey Hutchinson has recently come out in opposition to the bill and will be voting against cloture.
Even though Minority Leader Senator McConnell was part of the effort of resurrecting this bill, he appears to be wavering on his support. His office has been hammered and he clearly doesn’t want his name attached to this since he’s up for election in 2008. It remains to be seen where he will throw his vote.
Even many prominent organizations of the hispanic community have come out in opposition to this bill.
And many Republicans, such as Lindsay Graham, are feeling the pressure. His approval ratings have plummeted into 31% and he polls higher amongst Democrats, than his own Republicans at this point. While he doesn’t have a primary challenger yet, Senators Hagel already does, and their are rumors of many more to come for other amnesty supporters.
Trent Lott has been very vocal lately, although it appears as if that is mostly from frustration than anything else. As Minority Whip it’s his job to keep Republican Senators in line and clearly they aren’t listening. He expected that this amnesty bill would be passed with a clearly majority and that’s just not gonna happen. He sees the public opposition and sees his world view crumbling, he’s not liking it and is lashing out irrationally….not that he shouldn’t be held accountable to his words.
The Inside Word
Just for your amusement I figured you might like these quotes that come from staff members from a variety of Congressional offices.
Every call is the exact same. 1. We don’t need this new amnesty bill. 2. Enforce the laws that are already there. 3. Build the wall.
That’s called public consensus. Act on it.
If I hear the words “amnesty bill” one more time, I’m going to have a fit.
Yeah, we have the same reaction…
I’m in Maria Cantwells office….I’ve gotten so many calls about the immigration bill everyone wants it voted against…
It’s nice to know you have a public mandate for something….now act on it.
The immigration issue kills me. It’s hard to fault immigrants who flee unfortunate circumstances to come here and work, especially when we make it so inviting and easy for them. On the other hand, there are also a lot of people illegally here from non-third world countries on expired visas who just “prefer” to live in the U.S. Well, I “prefer” not to pay my taxes, but failing to do so will certainly land me in jail. When’s the last time someone proposed an amnesty for tax violators? Oh yeah, that’s right it’s in the Senate bill, but it only pertains to folks here illegally. The public may not all be gung ho about erecting miles of wall and deporting everyone, but they are not so stupid that the Senate bill even passes their smell test.
Well at least there is one politician that doesn’t regard us as stupid enough to fall for this.
It’s difficult to maintain a high degree of excitement about legislation that is so patently absurd. Even the sponsors know it is a ridiculous canard. They are only pushing it because they are septuagenarians who will be long dead when twenty years from now - just like the 1986 bill - citizens wake up and realize that our country is in fact worse off because of their government’s shortsighted immigration “reform.”
I couldn’t have said it better myself.
Am I the only one who previously had an opinon on the immigration bill…and now just doesn’t give damn?I used to care, but not now. Now I just want it to go way. Pass it…don’t pass…just do something. At least they aren’t mailing us as many bricks (to build the wall) as before.
Do you need us to start doing that again??
Where everyone lines up…
Ok these I got from NumbersUSA which has been very helpful and very accurate so far.
The Senators who will vote NO on Cloture are
Alexander (R-Tenn.)
Allard (R-Colo.)
Baucus (D-Mont.)
Byrd (D-W.Va.)
Bunning (R-Ky.)
Chambliss (R-Ga.)
Coburn (R-Okla.)
Corker (R-Tenn.)
Cornyn (R-Texas)
Crapo (R-Idaho)
DeMint (R-S.C.)
Dole (R-N.C.)
Dorgan (D-N.D.)
Enzi (R-Wyo.)
Grassley (R-Iowa)
Hutchison (R-Texas)
Inhofe (R-Okla.)
Isakson (R-Ga.)
Landrieu (D-La.)
McCaskill (D-Mo.)
Pryor (D-Ark.)
Roberts (R-Kan.)
Rockefeller (D-W.Va.)
Sanders (I-Vt.)
Sessions (R-Ala.)
Shelby (R-Ala.)
Smith (R-Ore.)
Stabenow (D-Mich.)
Sununu (R-N.H.)
Tester (D-Mont.)
Thune (R-S.D.)
Vitter (R-La.)
Everyone else is probably going to vote YES on cloture. There are 32 Senators listed above, plus Senator Johnson is still too sick to vote so he’ll be counted as NO. That brings us 8 votes short of the 41 we need. So if your Senator isn’t listed above start calling!!!
It’s now or never folks!!
Numbers to Senate offices are below the fold.
(more…)