As we sit and digest the 2006 Elections, it’s natural to look to the future as we wonder, “What went wrong and how do we prevent it in the future”. Towards that end, inevitably the topic will arise, who will carry the banner in 2008?
There have been many many names mentioned and some profess alarm at the fact that a name hasn’t risen from the ashes and been the clear choice. To that I might point out that at this point in 2002, the Democrats were still entertaining names such as Howard Dean and Al Gore, the Dean Scream hadn’t happened yet, and John F-ing Kerry was barely a blip on the radar. My point being, alot can happen.
But it is sometimes entertaining to take a look at what’s out there and wonder if they have a shot. And since it’s entertaining to some (such as myself) I’ll take a look at some of the names and balance out the pros/cons of each. Now out of necessity let me point out that I won’t mention all the names that have been mentioned, rather just some of the outstanding ones.
Tom Tancredo
Well you had to be expecting him, after all, he is the poster child of my favorite cause, and I’m a big fan. That said, I’ve already pointed out that Tancredo isn’t likely to be a serious presidential candidate. Mostly because in the eyes of most of the nation he’s a single-issue candidate. Although, as one very observant commenter pointed out, he has a very impressive conservative portfolio besides illegal immigration. High grades from the National Taxpayers Union, the American Conservative Union, the Citizens Against Government Waste and the NRA. He’s big on defense, he’s pro-life, he’s against gay marriage, anti-illegal immigration, likes constructionist judges and he’s for drilling in ANWR. He’s a virtual model of what most conservatives want these days. Only problem is he continues in the eyes of many to be a one-issue candidate and has really made no attempts to improve upon that. Admittedly, he has not expressed much interest so far in the White House, and his immigration stance has earned him many enemies on both sides of the aisle, including Karl Rove. So, short of a major PR move, he’s a darkhorse candidate at best.
Newt Gingrich
Arguably one of the architects of the current day conservative movement, and the author of the “Contract With American” that lead to the 1994 House takeover. Despite, my belief that a renewed committment to the Contract With America being our roadmap back to success, I don’t know if Newt can get the Republican nod for President. During his time in office he did lead the charge against corruption but at the same time one only has to look at the reason he left office to wonder about ethical problems. I just can’t see the fact that he had an affair with a congressional staffer not becoming an issue during any presidential race, even though said staffer became his third wife (that itself being an issue). That said, he’s a virtual model of what conservatives need to do in the future. He’s for low taxes, shrinking the government, anti-illegal immigration, big on defense and the war on terror. If the “But Clinton Did It” excuse isn’t too worn out to melt away whatever influence his affair might have, Newt might very well be our best option at the moment.
Rudy Giuliani
“America’s Mayor”, he was the the rock upon which much of American leaned on that horrible day on September 11th, 2001. For that he earns my eternal gratitude. But there is one problem with him running for President as a Republican….he’s a liberal. Pro-Gun Control, Pro-Abortion (including partial-birth!), backs gay-marriage, appoints liberal judges, is essentially is in favor of eradicating the idea of a border and in 1989 he even got the Liberal Parties support in his run for mayor. About the only thing most conservatives will agree with him on is the War on Terror, and the fact that he likes low taxes and cuts spending. Is that enough for most conservatives? After the 2006 election backlash, I doubt it. He’s ranked high as a candidate right now because he is running on name recognition alone. Once people start seeing his beliefs, he’ll drop faster than a hooker in Bangkok.
John McCain
The guy that defined the term “RINO”. Sure he’s big on fighting pork, but beyond that…well he gets lukewarm ratings from conservative organizations. In fact, his fellow Arizonian Senator Kyl ranks higher than him everywhere, even on defense issues. Plus he has damn near proposed handing over the southern US to Mexico. So he can’t exactly wave a conservative platform anywhere. Frankly, the only reason he gets ranked as high as he does is name recognition. For years, he’ll do or say anything just to get his name in the papers. Right now, that’s paying off. In a year, expect him to be go from “A List” past “B List” straight to “ZZZ List”.
Mitt Romney
Well right off the bat the guy has charisma coming out his eardrums. I mean the guy has the looks of a movie star, which in our TV monopolized world is not a bad thing. As far as credentials go, he’s middle of the road. As governor, he turned a deficit $650 million deficit into a surplus of $700 million facing a Democratic legislature. But he did that through extensive use of line-item veto for $180.5 million and raising state fees to a sum of $313 million. He supports the status-quo on abortion. On marriage, he supports “domestic partnerships” instead of civil unions or gay-marriage. He’s generally a supporter of gun rights, but supported the federal and state’s assault weapons ban. He appoints a large number of Democrats to judicial appointments. Romney could accurately be called a fence-sitter on virtually every issue. Plus the fact that he’s the governor of the liberal commonwealth of Massachusetts has to give one pause. Now others have made mention of the fact that he’s Mormon, I guess I don’t see this as a major issue but then again I haven’t seen any statistics on the publics opposition to having a Mormon president. I have problems believing this would be a big issue though. In general, Mitt Romney is a very lukewarm candidate, put him in the darkhorse category.
UPDATE : Ok via Fraters, who got it via Vox, we have this statistic regarding Mormons : 43% Would Never Vote for Mormon Candidate. Apparently it is an issue, which make Mitt look that much worse. Put him at the back of the darkhouse category.
Sam Brownback
The Kansan senator brings with him a not unimpressive conservative portfolio. While he’s fought against government waste and for tax cuts, he gets very lukewarm ratings from the National Taxpayers Union and Citizens Against Waste in Government. However, he has been a leader in the fight against abortion and gay-marriage. He’s a big supporter of the 2nd amendment and has supported constructionist judges. However, he sided with McCain on the immigration issue. There are some questionable campaign contributions from his 1996 campaign, even though he denies any wrongdoing, you can be damn sure it’ll be made an issue again. I’d definitely say he’s “in the hunt” but probably not a true front-runner at this time.
Mike Huckabee
While he has consistently not been ranked very high as a possibility, the governor of Arkansas does possess some traits that could allow him to pull into competitive standing. He’s managed oversee Arkansas’ first-ever tax cuts, and even got a “Taxpayers Bill of Rights” passed, although that was later followed with two half-cent sales taxes hikes, although those both carried special circumstances. He’s managed to balance the budget, even managing to take the fight to the teachers and health services programs. He’s got no defense experience, which during a War on Terror is not a good thing. He’s pro-life, and against gay-marriage. He’s been a champion of the Second Amendment and is for judges who interpret, rather than make the law. And while he’s for protecting our borders, he’s basically a pro-amnesty candidate. Like I said, he’s consistently ranked low, but I believe that’s mostly from little to no name recognition. His conservative portfolio is certainly no worse than any of the other front-runners.
Others
Now there are certainly others I haven’t mentioned such as Rice, Pataki, Hagel, Frist, Pawlenty, etc, but they have all consistently polled in the single digits when possible 2008 candidates have been discussed. And for virtually all of them there is good reason they have polled as such. While some of them could be consider vice-presidential material, unlike Huckabee I see no reason for any of them to be anything more than a footnote in 2008.
With the exception of Gingrich and Tancredo, there are no true conservatives out there right now. So the field is definitely ripe for an unknown “Reagan” to emerge and take the crown. So it will be interesting to see how the next two years go, and since the 2008 GOP National Convention is in Minnesota, I’ll have a front row seat to the festivities. The fun is already beginning as candidates are starting to declare their intentions to run, so I look forward to the fun and to see how well my evaluations pan out. Almost certainly this is a topic I will revisit. And also certain is that there will be lots of people who disagree with me. But that’s politics, and that’s what makes it fun!